NFL MVP Odds: Matthew Stafford Jumps to Favorite, Josh Allen Rises, Sam Darnold Tanks

Breaking down the latest NFL MVP odds after Sunday's action in Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the MVP favorite through 11 weeks. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Another week, another favorite to win the NFL MVP.

After Drake Maye took the top spot in Week 10 after the New England Patriots moved to 8-2, and he built on that with a Thursday Night Football win over the New York Jets, oddsmakers have changed course after Sunday’s Week 11 action.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is now +150 and favored to win this award in the odds at DraftKings, as he threw two scores (to add to his league lead) to beat the Seattle Seahawks and move to 8-2 this season.

The Rams are the favorite to win the Super Bowl, and they now have sole possession of first place in the NFC West. 

Maye remains in the mix at second in the odds at +185, and two other players (Josh Allen and Jonathan Taylor) are shorter than 10/1 to win the MVP.

However, some players have fallen back in this race, as both Patrick Mahomes (now +1600) and Sam Darnold (now +5000) seem to have fallen out of contention after losing crucial division games on Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds and some of the leading candidates ahead of Week 12’s action. 

Latest NFL MVP Odds for 2025 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Matthew Stafford: +150
• Drake Maye: +185
• Josh Allen: +475
• Jonathan Taylor: +650
• Patrick Mahomes: +1600
• Jalen Hurts: +2800
• Lamar Jackson: +4000
• Sam Darnold: +5000
• Jared Goff: +5500
• Baker Mayfield: +6000
• Daniel Jones: +6500
• Jordan Love: +6500
• Justin Herbert: +7500
• Bo Nix: +8000
• Caleb Williams: +8000

Matthew Stafford Now Favored to Win NFL MVP

Week 11 was far from Stafford’s best game – he threw for just 130 yards and two scores – but the win may have mattered more than anything.

The Rams are the Super Bowl favorites at the moment, and Stafford has given his team the top spot in the NFC West standings for the time being. That matters a ton for this market, as the Rams are firmly in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 

Stafford leads the NFL in touchdown passes, and one could argue that he’s been the best thrower of the football in the 2025 season. He and Maye are the clear favorites through 11 weeks. 

Drake Maye Remains Contender to Win NFL MVP

After Thursday night’s win over the Jets, I wrote this about Drake Maye and his MVP case – which remains true on Monday: 

Maye has thrown for 20 scores and just five picks this season while completing 71.9 percent of his passes. He's turned the Patriots from a team that had back-to-back top-five picks into a legitimate Super Bowl contender, so it's not a surprise that he's in the mix to win MVP this season.

New England is favored to win the AFC East, and at 9-2, it should remain in the mix for the No. 1 spot in the AFC, which would improve Maye’s case even further this season. 

Josh Allen Jumps to Third in NFL MVP Odds

Allen combined for six touchdowns in Week 11, rushing for three and throwing for three in a shootout win over Tampa Bay.

Allen does have seven picks this season (he threw two on Sunday), but his biggest obstacle to MVP may be his team’s record. A loss to New England earlier this season has the Bills multiple games out of the top spot in the AFC East, and the Patriots have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.

That may make it tough for Allen to get out of a wild card spot and ultimately get back into the top spot in this market. 

Sam Darnold’s NFL MVP Odds Tank in Week 11

After Week 10, Darnold rose to +1000 to win the MVP award this season, but that was short lived.

The Seattle Seahawks quarterback threw four picks in a huge divisional loss to the Rams, pushing his MVP odds all the way back to +5000. Unless he really has a big final two months of the regular season, and is able to overtake the Rams, it’s unlikely Darnold overtakes Stafford in this market. 

Honorable Mention(s): Bo Nix (+8000) and Caleb Williams (+8000) haven’t been nearly dominant enough to win MVP awards, but let’s shout out the 2024 draft class. Jayden Daniels went to the NFC title game last season, Nix made the playoffs and now Maye is second in the odds to win the MVP award. Nix is 9-2 with Denver this season and Williams is 7-3 with Chicago, as both teams are in a great spot to make the playoffs in 2025.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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