NFL Player Prop Countdown : Top 10 NFL Prop Bets for Week 4 (It's Time to Fade Christian McCaffrey)

Iain MacMillan | Sep 26, 2025

Bet the UNDER on Christian McCaffrey's rushing yards total in Week 4. / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

We took a bit of a step back in the Week 3 edition of the Player Prop Countdown, going 4-6 for -2.47 units, which brings our season-long total with our prop bets to 15-15 for -1.32 units.

Let's try to get back on track in Week 4. We have a great slate of games to watch and bet on this week, and I'm feeling confident with my plays. Let's dive into my top 10 picks for this week's edition of the Player Prop Countdown.

Best NFL Week 4 Prop Bets

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Saquon Barkley UNDER 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' run defense has been dominant to start the season. Through the first three weeks, they've shut down running backs like Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall, and they now rank first in opponent rush EPA, second in opponent rush success rate, and allow just 3.6 yards per carry.

This weekend, they'll face Saquon Barkley, who has gone over 60 yards just once in three games this season while averaging only 3.3 yards per carry.

9) Ray Davis Anytime Touchdown (+310)

One of my favorite strategies for cashing in on a long shot touchdown bet is to target the second-string running back on a team that's favored by a lot. That's exactly what I'm going to do in this spot. The Buffalo Bills are 15.5-point favorites against the Saints, and all signs point to this being a lopsided affair. If it is, the Bills will toss in their second-string guys in the second half. We've already seen Ray Davis, the Bills' backup running back, play 26.7% of offensive snaps against the Jets in a 30-10 victory. If he sees some snaps in the second half game, there's a strong chance he finds the end zone, which would be a great winner at +310 odds.

8) Romeo Doubs Longest Reception OVER 19.5 Yards (-110)

The Dallas Cowboys have given up 13 passing plays of 20+ yards this season, so let's target Romeo Doubs of the Green Bay Packers to haul in a reception of at least 20 yards on Sunday Night Football. Doubs had at least one reception of 20+ yards in seven of his 13 games last year. Let's see if he can haul in a deep one on Sunday.

7) Nick Chubb OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

I'm going to believe in Nick Chubb on Sunday when the Texans take on the lowly Tennessee Titans. The Titans have been horrific when it comes to stopping the run this season. They rank last in opponent rush EPA, 26th in opponent rush success rate, and 29th in opponent yards per carry, giving up 5.3 yards per rush. The Texans will find success if they lean on Chubb in this AFC South showdown.

6) Zay Flowers UNDER 4.5 Receptions (+116)

Zay Flowers got off to a hot start to the NFL season, but there has been a market overcorrection. Not only have the odds on his receptions total swung too far the other way, but defenses have caught on to him being the primary target for the Ravens. After catching 14 balls on 20 targets in the first two weeks, he has held to just two catches on three targets against the Lions. I expect that trend to continue when he and the Ravens take on the Chiefs' defense.

5) Jaxson Dart UNDER 188.5 Passing Yards (-114)

This is a nightmare matchup for Jaxson Dart to make his first NFL start in. He and the Giants are taking on the Los Angeles Chargers, who have had one of the best secondaries in the league this season. The Chargers rank first in opponent dropback success rate, third in opponent dropback EPA, and second in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.1 yards per pass attempt.

4) Hunter Henry OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Hunter Henry is a great player to target this week. He and the New England Patriots will take on the Carolina Panthers, who have given up the most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Henry has seven more targets than any other pass catcher on the Patriots. He also leads the team in receiving yards with 165, averaging 55 per game, which is well above his set total for Sunday.

3) Sam Darnold OVER 226.5 Passing Yards (-114)

It's time to officially declare myself as a Sam Darnold believer. He ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite, behind only Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, and Josh Allen. Now, he gets to take on an Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in opponent dropback success rate. With the total set at a relatively low number of 226.5, I'll take the OVER.

2) Jonathan Taylor OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

The Indianapolis Colts are going to have to find creative ways to get the ball in the hands of Jonathan Taylor. The Rams will load up the box, so the solution should be to give their star running back swing passes, screens, and other quick passes. If that's their game plan, he'll soar over 15.5 receiving yards on Sunday. He has already hit at least 16 yards in all three games this season.

1) Christian McCaffrey UNDER 74.5 Rushing yards (-113)

It's time for us to have a conversation about Christian McCaffrey. While he's had a successful season as a pass-catcher, he's struggled to get the ball going on the ground. He has yet to reach 70 yards on the ground, and he's averaging only 3.4 yards per carry. The 49ers may start leaning on their other options at running back when it comes to moving the ball down the field. The fact that the 49ers now have to take on a Jaguars defense that ranks first in the league in opponent rush success rate isn't going to help McCaffrey's production on Sunday. I'll take the UNDER on his rushing yards total.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!