Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 3 (Dak Prescott Will Torch Bears' Weak Secondary)

Iain MacMillan | Sep 18, 2025

Bet the OVER on Dak Prescott's passing yards total against the Bears in Week 3. / Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

The Player Prop Countdown had a successful Week 2, going 6-4 for +1.89 units. That brings us up to 11-9 for +1.15 units through the first two weeks of the 2025 NFL season.

We move on to Week 3, and we try to keep the momentum going. With each passing week, we have more data from this season to use, which leads to more educated bets. Let's dive into my top 10 plays for this week's edition of the Player Prop Countdown.

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Chris Olave OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)

Chris Olave is starting to show signs that he's back to his former self. Despite previous injuries and playing for a bad Saints team, Olave is third in the NFL in targets this season with 23. He has hauled in 13 receptions off those 23 targets. He now faces the Seahawks, who have allowed 23.0 receptions per game through the first two weeks, along with 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Based on those numbers, Olave is underrated in the betting market.

9) Bryce Young OVER 32.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

You would probably be surprised to learn Carolina Panthers' quarterback Bryce Young enters this week as the league leader in pass attempts, racking up 90 through his first two games, including 55 pass attempts against the Cardinals last week. If the Falcons get off to an early lead, like the Cardinals did last week, then Young has a great chance to once again go over this number.

8) Breece Hall UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

I've been impressed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' run defense. They currently rank second in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, while also allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. Just look at how much they shut down the Falcons' rushing attack in Week 1, and then Atlanta exploded for almost 200 yards on the ground against the Vikings in Week 2. If the Buccaneers can hold the Falcons to so few yards, Breece Hall of the Jets is going to struggle to get to over 50 yards on Sunday.

7) Patrick Mahomes OVER 30.5 Rush Yards (-110)

With Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy injured, Patrick Mahoems has taken matters into his own hands, or in this case, legs. He has rushed for 57 yards and 66 yards in his first two games this season. It's also worth noting that Mahomes has historically run much more when playing in prime time, averaging 5.2 more rushing yards per game when playing under the bright lights compared to an average Sunday afternoon game.

I think he's going to be forced to take off running again on Sunday night against the Giants.

6) Daniel Jones Anytime Touchdown (+200)

The Colts have seemingly decided to use Daniel Jones' legs when they get close to the end zone, as he's already recorded three rushing touchdowns this season. That trend is in a great spot to continue this weekend when the Colts take on the Titans, who rank last in the NFL in opponent rush EPA through the first two weeks. If Jones continues his streak of scoring rushing touchdowns, this could be the last week that betting on him to do so has any value, so let's get in while we still can.

5) DK Metcalf Longest Reception OVER 23.5 Yards (-110)

We're taking a look at DK Metcalf for the second week in a row, but this time I'm going to bet the OVER on his longest reception at 23.5 yards. He and the Steelers will take on a Patriots' defense that has given up 13 passing plays of 20+ yards this season, which is three more than the next-worst team. The Patriots have also given up 12.6 yards per completion, which is the third most in the NFL. Metcalf had a 31-yard reception in Week 1. Let's see if he can pop off for another long one on Sunday.

4) Josh Jacobs UNDER 73.5 Rush Yards (-110)

The Cleveland Browns haven't had a ton working their way through the first two weeks, but their run defense has been strong. They rank eighth in opponent rush EPA, sixth in opponent rush success rate, and they've allowed just 2.1 yards per carry, the fewest in the NFL, and that includes a game against the most potent rushing attack in the NFL, the Ravens. Josh Jacobs has struggled to start the year, averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. He's going to struggle to get much going in this game.

3) Bo Nix UNDER 216.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Bo Nix was one of the most overrated players in the offseason. Yes, he had a solid rookie campaign, but people were already crowning him one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He has struggled out of the gates in 2025, failing to reach more than 206 yards through the first two weeks. Now, he has to take on a Chargers' defense that has been amazing in the secondary through the first two weeks. The Chargers rank fourth in opponent dropback EPA, first in opponent dropback success rate, and second in opponent yards per pass attempt (4.9).

2) Dak Prescott OVER 264.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Bears' defense has been atrocious, and their secondary is banged-up beyond belief. Through the first two weeks, they rank 30th in opponent dropback EPA, 31st in opponent dropback success rate, and last in opponent yards per pass attempt (9.8). Prescott, who's fresh off a 361-yard performance against the Giants, is going to have a field day against the Bears. He's averaging 258.0 passing yards per game in his career, so he should have no problem reaching just slightly more than that against a secondary as horrific as the Bears.

1) Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 85.5 Rushing + Receiving yards (-115)

The Detroit Lions have remained committed to giving the ball to David Montgomery on an almost even basis to Jahmyr Gibbs, but they can't keep doing that based on how much more effective Gibbs has been. He's averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season, and he already has 13 receptions on the year. As long as the Lions give Gibbs the ball enough on Monday, there's a chance he soars past this number.

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