NFL Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Prop Bets for Week 5 (Buy Stock in Jake Ferguson)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 3, 2025

Jake Ferguson has had a hot start to his 2025 NFL season. / Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Every week this NFL season, I've been ranking my top 10 player props to bet on. It's been an up-and-down journey so far, but last week we ended up going 6-4 for (+1.27 units). That brings my season-to-date total to 21-19 for -0.05 units. For my top-ranked prop bet, I'm 3-1 for +1.62 units this season. If we can put together another winning week, we'll be back in the green for the season.

It's time to dive into my top 10 player props for Week 5 of the 2025 NFL campaign.

Best NFL Week 5 Prop Bets

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Jonathan Taylor UNDER 89.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Despite the Raiders being 1-3 on the season, their run defense has been a significant strength of theirs this season. Heading into Week 5, they rank second in opponent rush EPA and seventh in opponent rush success rate. That means the Colts would be wise to attack them through the air instead of trying to pound the rock with Jonathan Taylor. It's also worth noting that Taylor has gone over 76 yards just twice in his four games so far this season.

9) Juwan Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+240)

Few people think of Juwan Johnson as an elite tight end, but through the first four weeks, he has the third most receptions in the league amongst tight ends with 22. Now, he and the Saints take on a Giants team that has allowed the 10th most receptions to the position this season. Spencer Rattler has been better than you may think, and I'm of the belief he'll be able to hit Johnson a handful of times this game, and hopefully one of those will be in the end zone.

8) Jerry Jeudy Longest Reception UNDER 18.5 Yards (-105)

Jerry Jeudy is going to struggle to produce on Sunday, especially when it comes to long receptions. He and the Browns will take on the Minnesota Vikings in London, and Dillon Gabriel will be making his first start in the NFL. Cleveland might keep the passing game to short and underneath routes. Not only that, but the Browns will be facing a Vikings defense that leads the league in opponent dropback EPA and has allowed the second-fewest receptions of 20+ yards this season.

7) Tommy Tremble OVER 26.5 Receiving yards (-118)

Tommy Tremble will be getting the start at tight end for the Carolina Panthers this week with starter Ja'Tavion Sanders sidelined with an injury. He's also going to benefit from taking on a Miami Dolphins defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends this season. We're not asking for much from Tremble, just 27 or more yards is enough to cash this bet.

6) Jayden Daniels UNDER 214.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Jayden Daniels has a tough test in his return to the field after missing two weeks due to injury. He and the Commanders will take on an elite Chargers pass defense that has given up the second-fewest yards per pass attempt this season at 5.0, while also ranking first in opponent dropback success rate and fourth in opponent dropback EPA.

Jayden Daniels' first two starts at QB weren’t great this season. He completed just 59.7% of passes for an average of 216.5 yards. I'm not sure if he’ll be ready to hit the ground running after coming back from injury against an elite secondary and with several of his receivers banged up.

5) Cam Ward OVER 182.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Time to buy low on Cam Ward. The Cardinals are 21st in opponent dropback EPA and 28th in opponent dropback success rate. Cam Ward has had an extremely tough start to his career with starts against the Broncos, Rams, Colts, and Texans. Three playoff teams from last year and one start against a Colts team that is off to a red-hot start this year.

4) Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The Bills' run defense has been a real problem this season. They've given up 6 yards per carry, which is the third most in the NFL. They're also 28th in opponent rush EPA and 21st in opponent rush success rate. Ed Oliver and Matt Milano returned to limited practice this week, but they’re not expected to be ready to play on Sunday, which significantly hurts their defense.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been the Patriots’ main ball carrier. He played 57.1% of offensive snaps for the Patriots last week. If Oliver and Milano aren't on the field on Sunday night, Stevenson could be poised for a big performance.

3) Isiah Pacheco UNDER 30.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Jaguars have had one of the best run defenses in the NFL this season through the first four weeks, leading the league in opponent rush success rate. We’ve also seen Isaiah Pacheco’s usage drop, playing only 37% of snaps for the Chiefs last week against the Ravens. It could be a sign the Chiefs are looking more toward Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith as their primary runners. That could lead to Isiah Pacheco failing to reach his rushing yards total on Monday night.

2) Alvin Kamara OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Giants enter this week as the worst run defense in the league. They rank last in the NFL in opponent rush EPA, last in opponent rush success rate, and second last in opponent yards per carry (6.1). Alvin Kamara is still the Saints' workhorse back, playing at least 73% of offensive snaps each week this season. He has gone over this number in two of his four games, including getting 70 yards against the Bills’ run defense last week.

1) Jake Ferguson OVER 4.5 Receptions (-172)

You wouldn't expect it, but Jake Ferguson is fourth in the NFL in targets and second in the league in receptions, not amongst tight ends, but around all pass-catchers in the NFL. His 34 receptions are good for an average of 8.5 receptions per game. Despite that, his receptions total is set at just 4.5 for the Cowboys' Week 5 game against the Jets. It's also worth noting that the Cowboys have thrown the ball at the second-highest rate in the league, throwing the ball on 64.84% of plays.

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