NFL Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 Prop Bets for Week 14 (Zay Flowers Will Thrive vs. Steelers)

Iain MacMillan | 10 Hours Ago

Bet Zay Flowers to go over his receptions total in NFL Week 14 action against the Steelers. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

We're now in the final stretch of the NFL season, as Week 14 will serve as the final slate with BYEs. That means we have 14 games to watch and bet on this week.

You'd be doing yourself a disservice if you don't get in on the player prop market. Many bettors believe the best value is on player props instead of sides and totals. If you want to get in on the action this weekend, you're in the right spot. As I do every week, I'm going to break down my top 10 player props for Week 14 action.

NFL Week 14 Prop Bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Bijan Robinson UNDER 65.5 Rushing yards (-114)

Bijan Robinson is the only weapon left for the Falcons at this point of the season, which, unfortunately for him, means the Seahawks will likely load up the box to slow him down. This is already going to be a tough matchup for Robinson as the Seahawks rank fourth in opponent yards per carry (3.8), third in opponent rush success rate, and first in opponent rush EPA. Robinson will struggle to get the ball moving on the ground on Sunday.

9) Devaughn Vele OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Devaughn Vele has seen an increased role in the Saints’ offense over the past two weeks, combining for 15 targets, 11 receptions, and 130 receiving yards. I’m going to bet on that to continue against a banged-up Buccaneers secondary.

8) Jayden Higgins OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Slot receivers have had a lot of success against the Chiefs this season. That's great news for Texans WR Jayden Higgins, who, since Week 10, has seen his route share go up 10%, his targets per route have increased from 0.15 to 0.3, his target share has increased 10.5%, and his yards per route have increased from 1.09 to 2.15. Not only has his utilization increased significantly, but he now has an extremely favorable matchup against the Chiefs.

7) Justin Herbert UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts (-104)

Justin Herbert has gone over 31.5 pass attempts just once in his last five games. Now, with an injured hand and a game against an Eagles defense that seemingly can’t stop the run, I expect the Chargers to stick to the ground and not ask as much from their quarterback.

6) Breece Hall Longest Rush OVER 14.5 Yards (-110)

The Dolphins have allowed the second-most runs of 20+ yards this season (12) and the second-most runs of 40+ yards (5). Breece Hall had a 23-yard run against them back in Week 4, so we’re not asking much for him to have a rush of 15 yards or more this weekend. He has had a rush of 15+ yards in six games already this season.

5) Patrick Mahomes UNDER 234.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense have an extremely difficult task ahead of them on Sunday Night Football. The Texans' secondary is first in opponent dropback EPA, second in opponent dropback success rate, third in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.6), and fourth in opponent passing yards per game (174). Only two quarterbacks have thrown for 235+ yards against the Texans this season, and I don't think Mahomes is going to join that group as a third.

4) Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown (+210)

Betting on tight ends to score against the Bengals is the gift that keeps on giving. Cincinnati has been horrific defending tight ends this season, allowing the most receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the NFL. Dalton Kincaid is expected to return to action for the Bills this weekend, and he has already scored four touchdowns in eight games this season. With the Bills struggling to find consistent production at wide receiver, I expect them to lean on their tight ends in the final stretch of the season.

3) Zay Flowers OVER 4.5 Receptions (-111)

The Steelers have allowed the most receptions to opposing wide receivers this season. They’ve also allowed the most overall completions per game at 24.4. That should set up Zay Flowers to have a big performance. He has seen 5+ targets in every game except one this season, while also averaging 5 receptions per game. All he has to do is hit his season average, and this bet will cash.

2) Caleb Williams to Throw an Interception (+126)

Caleb Williams has the second-highest bad throw rate in the NFL this season, with 22.5% of his throws being considered “bad”. He only has five interceptions this season, but if he continues to throw “bad throws” at this high a rate, more interceptions will come. 

1) Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-106)

The Dolphins have won three straight games, and in that stretch, they’ve thrown the ball on just 42.77% of their plays, which is the lowest pass play rate over the past three weeks by almost 3%. In those three games, Tua has pass attempt totals of 21, 20, and 23, nowhere near the 31 mark he’d have to hit on Sunday for this bet to lose. If that offensive game plan continues in Week 14, Tua’s passing attempts total is way too high.

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