NFL Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 Prop Bets for Week 9 (Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards vs. Bills)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 30, 2025

Bet on Patrick Mahomes to go over his rushing yards total against the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

We took a step in the right direction with the Week 8 edition of the Player Prop Countdown. Two of the 10 bets were unfortunately on players who ended up missing their games due to injury, but that didn't stop us from finishing with a record of 5-3-2 for +3.31 units. That brings my season-to-date record to 36-41-3 for (-7.07 units). Let's try to move forward with another strong performance in Week 9.

Week 9 marks the official end of the first half of the season, so let's lock in. It's time for me to break down my top 10 player props for the Week 9 slate.

NFL Week 9 Prop Bets

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Jacory Croskey-Merritt UNDER 43.5 Rushing yards (-118)

The Washington Commanders will take on a Seattle Seahawks team that ranks first in opponent rush EPA, fifth in opponent rush success rate, and first in opponent yards per carry, allowing just 3.3 yards per rush. That will lead to a tough matchup for Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who had just nine carries against the Chiefs last week.

9) Matthew Stafford to Throw an Interception (-105)

Matthew Stafford, despite his strong first half of the season, has the sixth-highest bad throw percentage amongst all starting quarterbacks this week, with 18.5% of his throws being considered "bad throws". If that continues this week, I'll back the -105 odds on him to throw an interception against the Saints.

8) Tyler Shough UNDER 184.5 Passing Yards (-113)

The Saints are rolling out their rookie quarterback, Tyler Shough, for his first NFL start this weekend, and they're not giving him an easy matchup. The Los Angeles Rams rank second in opponent dropback EPA, fifth in opponent dropback success rate, and second in opponent yards per pass attempt, allowing just 5.7 yards per pass attempt. I can't imagine a more difficult first game for Shough, especially with it being on the road. The Saints may stick to the run game and short routes to ease him into the NFL. I think he'll struggle to reach 185+ yards through the air.

7) Ja’Tavion Sanders OVER 2.5 Receptions (+120)

The Green Bay Packers have done a lot of things well this season, but defending tight ends has not been one of them. The Packers have allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends this season among all 32 teams. That could lead to a big performance by the Panthers' tight end, Ja'Tavion Sanders, who has recorded 3+ receptions in two of his five starts this year. He had three receptions for 19 yards last week.

6) D’Andre Swift OVER 62.5 Rush Yards (-115)

The Cincinnati Bengals got much more respect than they deserve. They've especially struggled to stop the run in 2025, ranking 31st in opponent rush EPA, 30th in opponent rush success rate, and 28th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 5.0 yards per rush.

5) Jameson Williams OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Vikings' No. 2 and No. 3 cornerbacks are currently listed on the injury report as questionable, and neither practiced on Wednesday. If neither suit up on Sunday, Jameson Williams has a chance to have a huge game. Byron Murphy Jr. is healthy and will likely cover Amon-Ra St. Brown, leaving Williams to potentially go up against the Vikings' No. 4 cornerback. Let's try to take advantage of that by betting on Williams to go OVER 44.5 receiving yards.

4) Ka’imi Fairbairn OVER 7.5 Kicking Points (+100)

This game is a picture-perfect matchup for the Houston Texans' kicker to have a productive game. The Texans rank 31st in red zone offense, scoring a touchdown on 42.11% of their red zone appearances. They'll now face a Broncos defense that ranks first in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score a touchdown on just 40% of their red zone trips. A bad red zone offense against an elite red zone defense will likely lead to plenty of field goal attempts by Fairbairn. He already ranks second in field goals with 17 this season.

3) Marvin Harrison Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+125)

The Cowboys' secondary has been awful, ranking 31st in opponent dropback EPA, 30th in opponent dropback success rate, and they've allowed the most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. With all of that in mind, I'm surprised to see the Cardinals' top wide receiver being set at plus-money to find the end zone. He has 13 more targets, nine more receptions, and 213 more receiving yards than any other wide receiver on this team.

2) Bo Nix UNDER 208.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos will take on the most underrated defense in the NFL, the Houston Texans. The Texans rank first in opponent dropback EPA and second in opponent dropback success rate. It's also worth noting that Nix's passing yards drop dramatically when playing on the road. He averages 56.9 fewer passing yards per play in his career when playing away from home. That will play a significant role in Houston on Sunday.

1) Patrick Mahomes OVER 27.5 Rushing yards (-114)

You may not know this, but the Buffalo Bills have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. That could lead to Patrick Mahomes racking up yards on the ground in this marquee matchup on Sunday. Mahomes is also averaging 35 rushing yards per game this season, which is the most in his career by over 10 yards per game.

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