NFL Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Prop Bets for Week 8 (Michael Penix Jr's Bad Throws Will Haunt Him vs. Miami)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 23, 2025

Bet on Michael Penix Jr. to throw an interception in Week 8. / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

It's been a disastrous couple of weeks for the Player Prop Countdown. We went 3-7 for -4.09 units in Week 7, which drops us down to 31-38-1 for -10.38 units on the season.

The good news is we still have over half the season left to find some momentum, so let's try to walk away from Week 8 with a profit. Let's dive into my top 10 player props for the Week 8 slate.

NFL Week 8 Prop Bets

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Rhamondre Stevenson UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The New England Patriots' running back has a tough matchup ahead of him when he takes on a Cleveland Browns defense that ranks second in the NFL in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. This is also a great sell-high spot on Stevenson after an 88-yard performance last week. He only reached 50+ rushing yards once before last week.

9) Mason Taylor Anytime Touchdown (+280)

The New York Jets take on a Cincinnati Bengals team this week that allows the fourth most receptions, second most receiving yards, and the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. That could lead to a big game by the Jets' rookie tight end, Mason Taylor, who is second in all receiving categories for the Jets behind only Garrett Wilson. He's more than worth a bet at his +280 price tag.

8) James Cook OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Buffalo Bills are going to get back to their bread and butter after suffering two straight losses ahead of their Week 7 BYE. Running the football with their running back, that's averaging 5.0 yards per carry, seems to be a smart move against a not-so-great Panthers team. Cook has gone over 71.5 rushing yards in four of his six starts this season.

7) Bijan Robinson Longest Rush OVER 19.5 Yards (-110)

The Miami Dolphins have given up the most 20+ yard runs this season, with 10, which is three more than any other team. Now, they have to try to slow down arguably the best running back in the league. Bijan Robinson is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season. I envision him ripping off a 20+ yard run against this Dolphins defense.

6) Mac Jones UNDER 219.5 Passing Yards (-114)

We could see some regression coming for Mac Jones of the 49ers this week. He only threw for 152 passing yards last week, and now he has to take on an extremely tough Texans defense. Houston ranks first in opponent dropback EPA and second in opponent dropback success rate, and allows the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt at 5.8.

5) Dak Prescott UNDER 22.5 Completions (-114)

Dak Prescott has had plenty of fantastic starts this season, but he has a tough matchup ahead of him in Denver this week. The Broncos defense has the lowest completion percentage in the NFL at 55.86% while also allowing the third-fewest total completions per game at 17.7. It's also worth noting that Prescott has failed to go over this number in three starts already this season.

4) Calvin Ridley UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-150)

Calvin Ridley has been downright bad this season. He already has four drops on the season and is averaging just 2.66 receptions per game. Now, he'll likely be matched up with Charvarius Ward of the Colts, who has the best coverage grade amongst cornerbacks, according to PFF.com. This is a nightmare situation for Ridley.

3) Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion UNDER 32.5 Yards (-115)

Tua Tagovailoa's days as the starting quarterback for the Miami Dolphins may be numbered. Betting against him seems to be a strong strategy, and the way I'm going to do it is to bet the UNDER on his longest completion of the game against the Falcons. Tagovailoa has the sixth-lowest intended air yards per pass attempt in the NFL at 6.7. He has also completed a pass of over 30 yards in just three of his games. Now, he has to face a Falcons defense that has allowed the fewest pass plays of 20+ yards (eight) and only two pass plays of 40+ yards.

2) Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Commanders' strength on Monday Night Football lines up with the Chiefs' weakness. The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry, while ranking 23rd in opponent rush EPA and 21st in opponent rush success rate. The Commanders' offense ranks inside the top 10 in both those stats, leading the NFL in yards per carry at 5.4.

1) Michael Penix Jr. to Throw an Interception (+125)

Michael Penix Jr. leads the NFL in bad throw percentage, with 25% of his throws being considered "bad". Despite that, he has only thrown three interceptions this season. If he continues to throw that many bad throws every game, his interceptions are going to skyrocket. At +125 odds, this is a great bet for Penix Jr. to throw a pick.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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