NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for AFC and NFC Championship Games (Can Commanders Upset the Eagles?)

SI Staff | Jan 23, 2025

Can the Commanders upset the Eagles in the NFC Championship? / Jayden: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images, Hurts: Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Two underdogs pulled off the upset in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. The Commanders took down the No. 1 seed Lions while the Bills won as short underdogs at home to the Ravens.

The Rams were also close to pull off the upset against the Eagles, but they came up just 22 yards short of a game-winning touchdown and extra point.

Now with just two games set to take place on Sunday, is there any value in backing either underdog? A few members of the SI Team will break down their opinion on whether you should back the Commanders to pull off a third straight upset or if they're at least worth a bet to cover the 6-point spread.

All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Peter Dewey Conference Championship Upset Pick

Commanders (+230) to Upset Eagles

Does Jayden Daniels’ miracle playoff run continue in the NFC championship game?

Washington has already won outright as an underdog twice in this postseason, moving to 4-2-1 against the spread as road dogs in the 2024 season. The Commanders and Eagles played two one-possession games in the regular season, and Washington won the matchup when Jalen Hurts was injured in late in the season.

With Hurts injuring his leg in the divisional round win over Los Angeles, is there a small advantage for Washington? The Commanders' defense has been opportunistic this postseason, turning the Detroit Lions over several times in the divisional round upset.

If Hurts isn’t as mobile, it certainly limits the Philly offense, and the Eagles quarterback hasn’t done much with his arm so far in the postseason.

Now, I will admit that the biggest concern in this game is Washington’s run defense (18th in EPA/Rush, 30th in yards per carry allowed). That being said, I think the Commanders have the superior offensive unit in this matchup – especially with Daniels playing at an All-Pro level.

Philly certainly deserves to be favored given the body of work, but if I’m picking an upset this week, it’s gotta be this game. Washington is riding a ton of momentum and I won’t fade Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the bracket. -- Peter Dewey

Matt Verderame Conference Championship Underdog Pick

Commanders (+6) to Cover vs. Eagles

Washington is getting far too many points here. Yes, the Eagles are the better overall team with a clearly superior roster. And we said that when the Commanders were going in to face the Detroit Lions as well. How’d that work out?

Jayden Daniels has been the best player in the postseason. He’s engineering one of the league’s most efficient offenses on a points-per-drive basis this season, ranking fourth. He’s also the ultimate dual-threat weapon, and against a good Eagles defense, that could be key in extending both drives and plays.

Philadelphia has the better personnel. If the Eagles play to their capacity, they’ll win, but it won’t be by more than a touchdown. -- Matt Verderame

Iain MacMillan Conference Championship Underdog Pick

Commanders (+6) to Cover vs. Eagles

If you were to break down this bet from a pure analytics standpoint, there are plenty of reasons to like the Eagles. They far outrank the Commanders in Net Yards per Play and virtually every single defensive statistic you can find. I'm sure you'll hear all week about how the Commanders have struggled to stop the run and the Eagles will be able to power through them on the ground.

In most cases, I would be laying the points with the Eagles but at this point, I simply can't look past Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense. Daniels has been the best rookie quarterback in the history of the sport and may now be the best quarterback in the NFC. His ability to use his legs to his advantage while also remaining calm in the pocket is something I rarely see from a player at his position.

The Commanders also seem to have the Chiefs-esque factor of having things go their way in big moments and never shooting themselves in the foot, something the Eagles have done continuously this season including last week against the Rams.

The Commanders may not win this game. Their defensive issues may prove too much to pull off another upset. With that being said, I can't envision this being a blowout in favor of Philadelphia. I'll take the points with the 'dog. -- Iain MacMillan

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!