NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Divisional Round (Rams Will Stay Hot vs. Eagles)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 16, 2025

The Rams are +225 underdogs to the Eagles in the Divisional Round. / Stafford: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images, Hurts: Cooper Neill/Getty Images

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Three underdogs captured victory in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs. Peter Dewey correctly picked the Rams to upset the Vikings while the Commanders and Texans were also able to pull off upsets in their respective games.

We move on to the divisional round and three of the four games have one side that's significantly favored over the other side. Peter isn't scared of the lopsided odds in the Eagles and Rams game, he's going to back Los Angeles to pull off the second straight up.

Meanwhile, Matt Verderame is taking an underdog to cover the spread and Iain MacMillan is picking a huge upset to take place on Sunday. Let's take a look at their picks.

All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Peter Dewey Divisional Round Upset Pick

Rams (+225) to Upset Eagles

Yes, Jalen Hurts has never lost a home playoff game. Yes, the Rams are just 1-2 against the spread as road underdogs this season.

But I’m still backing Sean McVay’s Rams to reach the NFC Championship Game.

The Rams won nine of 11 games before sitting everyone in Week 18, and they dominated the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night. L.A.’s playoff experience cannot be overlooked, and even though the Philly defense is elite, its offense wasn’t exactly great against Green Bay.

With the Eagles losing Nakobe Dean in the wild card round, their margin for error is a little smaller on defense. I don’t expect Matthew Stafford to make as many mistakes as Jordan Love did last week.

I’m all about the Rams getting the win on the road this week. -- Peter Dewey

Matt Verderame Divisional Round Underdog Pick

Rams +6 vs. to Cover vs. Eagles

Unlike Peter, I’m not taking the outright upset. In fact, I’m going chalk this weekend with all four favorites to advance to Championship Sunday. However, the Eagles are laying far too many points against the Rams.

We just watched Philadelphia handle the Green Bay Packers, but do so while doing virtually nothing offensively. That’s not going to work against Los Angeles, which has one of the most powerful offenses in football with Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams.

The Eagles are at home, and they’re the better team. The Rams are also going cross-country on a short week. But Philadelphia shouldn’t be laying almost a touchdown in this one. -- Matt Verderame

Iain MacMillan Divisional Round Upset Pick

Texans (+340) to Upset Chiefs

I have been anti-Chiefs all season, so it's time to put my money where my mouth is. The Chiefs aren't nearly as good as their record is, and now have been overvalued by the betting market. Let's take a look at where they rank in a few key areas heading into this week:

Net Yards per Play: 20th (-0.2)
EPA per Play: 9th
Opponent EPA per Play: 15th
Success rate: 8th
Opponent Success rate: 13th
Red Zone TD%: 22nd
Opponent Red Zone TD%: 8th
Third Down Conversion%: 3rd
Opponent Third Down Conversion%: 27th

Does that look like the makeup of a team that should be this big of a favorite in the divisional round? You're only defense of the Chiefs at this point is that they're the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions, but if you look at this season in a vacuum, they are ripe to be upset.

The Chiefs' biggest strength is their third-down offense. Patrick Mahomes thrives on third down and their offense is third in the NFL in the area. If the Texans can pull off their upset, it'll be because of their third-down defense which ranks third in the NFL, keeping teams from converting third downs at a rate of just 35.5%. They're also fourth in opponent EPA on third down and third in opponent third down success rate.

Call me crazy, but I'll take the Texans to pull off the upset. -- Iain MacMillan