NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 1 (Bears Will Upset Vikings on Monday Night)

Iain MacMillan | Sep 4, 2025

NFL upset picks Week 1. / Ashton Jeanty: Candice Ward/Getty ImagesDrake Maye: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The 2025 NFL season is here, and nothing is more electric than a big underdog taking down a popular favorite.

Week 1 is ripe for upsets based on how little we know about how each team will look this upcoming season. For this week, and for every week the rest of the season, the SI Team is here to break down their favorite upset picks.

First, let's take a look at who's in this week's panel, and then we'll get to their underdog picks for the opening week.

• Clare Brennan, Associate Editor
• Mitch Goldich, Senior Editor
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer
• John Pluym, NFL Managing Editor
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
• Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor, Betting

All odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook

Clare Brennan Week 1 Upset Pick

Raiders (+130) to Upset Patriots

Two high-profile coaching debuts for Pete Caroll and Mike Vrabel imbue this Week 1 matchup with a bit more drama. With Caroll keen to rely on the run, rookie Ashton Jeanty has the opportunity to make a splashy regular-season debut against a Patriots defense that’s expected to take a step forward. Yes, there is much to be desired with this Raiders’ defensive unit outside of Maxx Crosby, but he may just be disruptive enough to rattle Drake Maye and help Las Vegas sneak out of Foxborough with a win.

Mitch Goldich Week 1 Upset Pick

Lions (+114) to Upset Packers

This one is pretty simple for me. I think the Lions are still the best team in the NFC North. I know they are going on the road here and that people are excited about the Micah Parsons trade, but he just got there. The Lions swept the season series against Green Bay last year, and I expect them to start the season with a tone-setting win. They know people have been talking all offseason about the impact of losing both coordinators, and they’ll be ready for this one. The line is under a field goal, and I have no problem just taking them to win outright. Let’s not forget how good this team was at 15–2 a year ago.

Matt Verderame Week 1 Upset Pick

Seahawks (+114) to Upset 49ers

Why are the Niners favored in this game? Seattle is at home, has the healthier team, and is coming off a better campaign in which it won 10 games. San Francisco has the better top-tier talent, but Brandon Aiyuk is still rehabbing from a torn ACL, and there are serious questions about Christian McCaffrey after he was limited to four games with an Achilles issue in 2024. Factor in the losses of Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, and Charvarius Ward off the defense, and the Seahawks are a very tasty home underdog to start the season.

John Pluym Week 1 Upset Pick

Seahawks (+114) to Upset 49ers

Brock Purdy got his mega-extension over the offseason. Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams are back. But Brandon Aiyuk likely won’t return until Week 5 from his ACL/MCL tears last season. And then there’s all the free agent losses. This is going to be a reset year for the 49ers. They’ll take their cap pain and be back in it in 2026, but not in the 2025 opener. I like the Seahawks. I like what Sam Darnold did in Minnesota, and he’ll prove the doubters wrong again. And Mike Macdonald’s defense will be even better than it was in his first year.

Iain MacMillan Week 1 Upset Pick

Bears (+108) to Upset Vikings

Whether or not you're a Caleb Williams believer, you can't deny how improved this Bears' team is, especially on the offensive line. Meanwhile, the Bears' defense will get to face J.J. McCarthy in his first NFL start. Let's not crown McCarthy as a great NFL quarterback just quite yet. Sure, the Vikings have some weapons, most notably Justin Jefferson, but I'm not ready to expect this team to be as good as they were in 2024. McCarthy still has a lot to prove. The Bears are my underdog of the week

Peter Dewey Week 1 Upset Pick

Bears (+108) to Upset Vikings

I’m all in on the Ben Johnson effect in Chicago, as Caleb Williams put together a solid preseason in an offense that has no excuses to fail in the 2025 season.

Meanwhile, there are a ton of questions in Minnesota, as J.J. McCarthy will be taking his first-ever regular-season snaps in Week 1. The Vikings still have one of the better defenses in the NFL after ranking fifth in points allowed and 11th in yards per play last season, but could they be due for some regression offensively?

Aaron Jones is another year older, and Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three games, giving McCarthy one less weapon to work with. Chicago was an atrocious road team last season (1-7), but it did win four of nine games at home.

Ultimately, I have more faith in Williams at home in an improved system after the year from hell in terms of his coaching staff. McCarthy is going to have to prove that he can play at the level Sam Darnold did last season before I start laying points with the Vikings on the road in a divisional matchup.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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