NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 4 (Chiefs Are Home Underdogs vs. Ravens)

Iain MacMillan | Sep 25, 2025

Chiefs are underdogs against the Ravens in Week 4. / Sports Illustrated

We finally saw some upsets take place in Week 3 of the NFL season, with the Cleveland Browns pulling off the biggest upset thus far, taking down the Green Bay Packers as 7.5-point underdogs. The Carolina Panthers also took down the Atlanta Falcons as 6.5-point underdogs.

That made for some great upset opportunities for us bettors who were looking to cash in on a big upset. Will we see a few big upsets again in Week 4? The SI Team is back to break down their favorite upset picks.

• Clare Brennan, Associate Editor
• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
• Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor

Clare Brennan Week 4 Upset Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+164) vs. Philadelphia Eagles via DraftKings

These two teams may be undefeated, but neither the Buccaneers nor the Eagles is a stranger to toughing out wins. Philadelphia has proved it can mount a comeback and steal a victory, and Baker Mayfield has shown he can deliver when his back is up against the wall. Some late-game theatrics could be in store if this matchup comes down to the wire.

Philadelphia has the depth advantage and is the better team on paper, especially given how depleted Tampa Bay’s offensive arsenal is. With Mike Evans out due to a hamstring injury, Mayfield will be without one of his top targets. Still, boasting a top-10 rushing defense, the Buccaneers may be able to stifle the Eagles’ run game and eke out a victory at home behind some clutch Mayfield magic.

Gilberto Manzano Week 4 Upset Pick

Atlanta Falcons (+102) vs. Washington Commanders via FanDuel

The Falcons do have a Michael Penix Jr. problem, but this team is much better than what they showed in last week’s embarrassing loss against the Panthers. Maybe that was the wake-up call Atlanta needed to lean on its strengths more, which are defense and running the football. Bijan Robinson is good enough to carry offenses, but he can’t do that if he’s only getting 13 carries per game. 

Also, let’s not forget that Penix had a strong performance against the Commanders’ defense last year. Washington lacks pass rushers, which could allow Penix to get in a rhythm to connect with Drake London. Take a chance on the home team here.

Matt Verderame Week 4 Upset Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (+125) vs. Baltimore Ravens via BetMGM

This feels like the classic spot where pundits are burying the Chiefs only for the hand to rise out of the grave. 

Kansas City is 1–2 and a home underdog for the second consecutive game at Arrowhead Stadium, this time to the two-loss Ravens. Baltimore is on a short week and could be without Kyle Van Noy and Nnamdi Madubuike in its front seven, both of which are significant losses. 

While the Chiefs can’t take advantage of those absences like the Lions did on Monday night to the tune of 38 points, Kansas City could look different on Sunday. There’s hope of a potential return of star second-year receiver Xavier Worthy, who has missed all of one series this year with a torn labrum and dislocated right shoulder. 

Finally, Kansas City and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo have owned the Ravens in recent years. The Chiefs have played Lamar Jackson six times in his career, including the 2023 AFC championship game, and lost just once. In the five regular-season games, Jackson has completed 58% of attempts while averaging 204.6 passing yards.

Iain MacMillan Week 4 Upset Pick

Indianapolis Colts (+160) vs. Los Angeles Rams via DraftKings

It's time for us football fans to start believing in the Colts. Sure, a three-game sample size is still small, but they've been so dominant offensively that it's hard to ignore at this point. Their metrics are right up there with the Ravens and Bills, in their own category compared to the rest of the NFL.

The Colts also rank second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.6, one spot above their Week 4 opponent, the Los Angeles Rams. In terms of advanced metrics, their slightly better offensively than the Rams, but Los Angeles has a small defensive advantage.

Any team with these close of numbers shouldn't have a spread north of a field goal. These odds are leftovers of offseason projections of both clubs. If you think you've seen enough of the Colts to consider them a legitimately good football team, there's a clear answer for which side you should back.

Peter Dewey Week 4 Upset Pick

New York Jets (+130) vs. Miami Dolphins via DraftKings

There’s a chance that Justin Fields returns for the Jets in Week 3, but regardless of who is under center, I think they can win this game in Miami in Week 4. 

The Dolphins are dead last in MLB in defensive EPA/Play, and they are 31st in defensive EPA/Rush, which should allow this New York offense to get something going on Monday night. The Dolphins have turned the ball over a bunch, and they’ve lost multiple games by double-digits in 2025. The Jets have lost two games on last-second field goals, and I think their defense is better than it has looked through three games. In a battle of 0-3 squads, why not take the underdog on Monday night?

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