NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 6 (Bet the Jets to Upset the Broncos)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 9, 2025

The Jets are underdogs to the Broncos in NFL Week 6 action. / Fields: Kayla Wolf-Imagn Images, Nix: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Last week's SI Upset Roundtable was a successful one, with four correct upset bets cashing for our team of writers, including Iain MacMillan cashing in on the New England Patriots at +360 to upset the Buffalo Bills.

We move on to Week 6, seeking another strong week of underdog plays. The SI Team has its picks locked in, so let's dive into them.

• Conor Orr, Senior Writer
• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
• Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Conor Orr Week 6 Upset Pick

New York Jets (+315) vs. Denver Broncos

I mean, why not? London is weird. Aaron Glenn is up against it. He said himself that he was once on the proverbial chopping block when Dan Campbell stood by him, and he figured out a way to become a dominant defensive coordinator. Now, he just has to do it in London. It’s a weird game, weird time zone, and a uniquely strange situation that is ripe for Breece Hall rushing for 150 yards for no good reason. 

Gilberto Manzano Week 6 Upset Pick

Atlanta Falcons (+188) vs. Buffalo Bills

Maybe I’m getting carried away here because of all the upsets last week. But I’ll give the Falcons a serious look because they’re at home and coming off a bye week. The Bills have struggled defensively all year and now have to deal with Bijan Robinson. I can also see Michael Penix Jr. having a decent outing vs. this secondary. But it’s going to take an elite defensive performance from Atlanta to overcome Josh Allen.

Matt Verderame Week 6 Upset Pick

Seattle Seahawks (+100) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville deserves a ton of credit. The Jaguars took everything the Chiefs could throw at them and still won on Monday night, despite giving up 476 yards. However, there are warning signs. First, this is a short week off an emotional win. Second, Jacksonville was outplayed most of the night. Third, the Jaguars benefited from 13 penalties.

If the Seahawks go into Jacksonville and play a cleaner game, they’re the better team. Sam Darnold has been great this season, throwing for 1,246 yards and nine touchdowns through five games. If Darnold gets the sort of time we saw Patrick Mahomes receive (Mahomes was only hit four times and never sacked), it could be a long day for the Jacksonville defense.

Iain MacMillan Week 6 Upset Pick

Cleveland Browns (+225) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The time to bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers is when they're getting points as underdogs. I have no interest in laying points on a Pittsburgh team that is the definition of average by almost every single metric. In terms of Aaron Rodgers, he has struggled when facing pressure this season, and now he has to face one of the best pass rushers in the league, Myles Garrett.

Dillon Gabriel looked solid against one of the best defenses in the league last week when he threw for two touchdowns against the Vikings in his NFL debut. It's clear he's better for this offense than Joe Flacco was, which makes the Browns an interesting underdog moving forward.

Peter Dewey Week 6 Upset Pick

Tennessee Titans (+194) vs. Raiders

These two teams have shown very little so far in the 2025 season, but I can’t get behind the Raiders as 4.5-point favorites against anyone right now.

Geno Smith has nine interceptions in the 2025 season, and for as bad as the Tennessee offense has been (31st in EPA/Play), the Raiders are right there with them at 28th in EPA/Play. These teams also both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in EPA/Play on defense.

When there are two terrible teams like this facing off, I don’t mind taking a shot at an underdog, especially since we’re getting nearly 2/1 odds for the Titans to win. Tennessee needed every break in the book to win in Week 5, but it’s possible it can carry some of that momentum into a pretty equal matchup in Week 6.

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