NFL Week 1 Best Bets (Predictions for Dolphins vs. Colts, Texans vs. Rams on Sunday)

The SI Betting team breaks down their favorite bets for the action on Sunday in Week 1 of the NFL season.

The Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa are one of our best bets for Week 1. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The NFL is back! 

Week 1 of the season is upon us – in fact we’re already two games in – which means it’s time for the SI Betting team to share our favorite bets for Week 1’s Sunday slate.

There are 13 games on Sunday, highlighted by a Sunday Night Football clash between AFC contenders in the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens. 

This year – just like the 2024 season – Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey are going to share their favorite plays for Sunday’s action each and every week. We’ll track the record here, and hopefully there are a ton of weeks where we deliver two winners to our readers.

In Week 1, we’re eyeing a pair of underdogs (against the spread) to kick off the season. Can they both cover? 

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for each pick as the 2025 NFL season gets underway. 

NFL Best Bets for Week 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Houston Texas +3 (-105) vs. Los Angeles Rams – Iain MacMillan
• Miami Dolphins +1.5 (-118) vs. Indianapolis Colts – Peter Dewey

Houston Texas +3 (-105) vs. Los Angeles Rams – Iain MacMillan

I'm so much lower on the Rams than the rest of the world, but it's a hill I'm going to die on. 

Not only did we see significant regression from an aging Matt Stafford last season, but now he comes into this season nursing a back injury. 

It's also important to note the Texans' new offensive coordinator is Nick Caley, who was the Rams' passing game coordinator last season.

 He's going to have some significant intel and knowledge on how to gameplan against Sean McVay's squad.

Miami Dolphins +1.5 (-118) vs. Indianapolis Colts – Peter Dewey

Everyone has written off the Miami Dolphins heading into Week 1, but I’m not going to do it!

Tua Tagovailoa is healthy entering this game against the Indianapolis Colts, and that has historically been a great sign for Miami. 

Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins are 25-16 straight up when Tagovailoa starts, and as a Dolphin, Tua is 38-24 as a starter. Are we really not going to take the points with him against Daniel Jones? 

Jones was downright awful in his starts in the 2024 season, and I don’t think he’s good enough to take advantage of an overturned Miami secondary through the air. The Dolphins’ pass rush should be much better in 2025 with Chop Robinson, Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and newcomer Matthe Judon all ready to go for Week 1. 

I don’t know if the Dolphins will be a playoff team, but they are usually an under .500 squad with Tua on the field. This is a prime buy-low spot after an offseason of questions in South Beach.

I think Miami ends up winning outright, but I’ll take the cushion of the 1.5-point spread on Sunday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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