NFL Week 11 Best Bets (Predictions for Bears vs. Vikings, Buccaneers vs. Bills)

The SI Betting team breaks down their favorite bets for Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season, including a pick for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Buffalo Bills matchup.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Baker Mayfield are underdogs in Week 11. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

A loaded 15-game slate takes place in the NFL in Week 11, featuring the final international game of the season and two massive matchups late in the day on Sunday.

Early on Sunday, two Super Bowl contenders -- the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- do battle as they look to bounce back from Week 10 losses.

Then, in the 4 p.m. EST window, the Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs in a huge matchup for the AFC playoff picture, and on Sunday night, the Philadelphia Eagles are set as small favorites against the Detroit Lions in a battle for position atop the NFC. 

So, why don’t we place some bets for Sunday’s action? 

SI’s Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan share their favorite bets for Sunday’s games every week, and we’re off to a strong start in the second half of the season.

In Week 10, MacMillan nailed a pick for the Los Angeles Rams as favorites against the San Francisco 49ers while the Baltimore Ravens held on to cover as 3.5-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings to cash Dewey’s bet.

Can we turn in another 2-0 showing in Week 11? 

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for each of these picks on Sunday. .

NFL Best Bets for Week 11

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills – Peter Dewey
• Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110) vs. Chicago Bears – Iain MacMillan

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills – Peter Dewey

This is a prime spot to buy low on Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after their loss to the New England Patriots in Week 10. 

Despite that defeat, Tampa Bay still ranks eighth in the NFL in EPA/Play on defense and 13th in EPA/Play on offense heading into this game against the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo lost as an 8.5-point favorite against Miami in Week 10, and it’s fallen to 19th in the NFL in EPA/Play defensively. The Bills are also just 4-5 against the spread this season and 0-3 against the number when favored at home. 

Tampa Bay’s offense should be able to move the ball against Buffalo, and the Dalton Kincaid injury put some serious questions in the how the Buffalo offense will fare against a Tampa Bay team that ranks eighth in EPA/Rush and 11th in EPA/Pass. 

I think the Bucs are a great bet to cover this spread, as it’s much closer to a touchdown that I expected after how these teams played in Week 10.

Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110) vs. Chicago Bears – Iain MacMillan

It's time for the Chicago Bears to come crashing back down to earth. 

They've been able to squeeze past far inferior teams this season to lead them to a 6-3 record, but their underlying metrics tell a different story. 

They rank 24th in DVOA and 23rd in Net Yards per Play at -0.5. Now, they have to face one of the better defenses in the NFL and while I'm still not a J.J. McCarthy believer, he has enough weapons to beat this overrated Bears squad.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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