NFL Week 14 Best Bets (Predictions for Texans vs. Chiefs, Broncos vs. Raiders on Sunday)

The SI Betting team breaks down their favorite bets for Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season, including a pick for the Houston Texans-Kansas City Chiefs matchup.

The Houston Texans and quarterback C.J. Stroud are underdogs on Sunday night. / Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The final push for a playoff spot in the NFL is finally upon us.

The calendar has flipped to December, and there are 14 games in Week 14 to bet on as several teams fight for positioning in the standings. So, why don't we bet on a few of these matchups?

Each week, SI’s Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan share their favorite bets for Sunday’s games every week, and we’re ready to dive into a loaded Sunday slate with matchups like:

• Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
• Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

This week, we're eyeing a total in an AFC West divisional clash and a spread pick for Sunday night's Houston vs. Kansas City game.

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for each of these picks for the first Sunday in December! 

NFL Best Bets for Week 14

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Denver Broncos-Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 40.5 (-110) – Peter Dewey
• Houston Texans +3.5 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan

Denver Broncos-Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 40.5 (-110) – Peter Dewey

I'm looking at a total for my best bet on Sunday, as the Denver Broncos are coming off an overtime win and facing the Las Vegas Raiders on the road in Week 14.

These teams played on Thursday night in Week 10 and combined for just 17 points, as Denver won that game 10-7. The Las Vegas offense has been awful all season long, and I don't see that changing against Denver's defense.

The Broncos rank No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed, No. 2 in sack percentage, No. 5 in EPA/Pass, No. 10 in EPA/Rush and No. 4 in points allowed this season. They should wreak havoc on the Raiders' offensive line once again in Week 14, as Denver held Vegas to just 188 total yards and sacked Geno Smith six times back in Week 10.

While the Raiders aren't a great defense -- they rank 22nd in EPA/Play -- they are a top-five team in EPA/Rush and held Denver to just 84 rushing yards and 3.9 yards per play in their first meeting this season.

The Broncos are far from an elite offense, and if Bo Nix is forced to win this game with his arm, Denver may not hang a huge number on the scoreboard. The Broncos have hit the UNDER in eight of their 12 games this season, including three of their five games on the road.

I wouldn't be shocked to see another low-scoring battle between these division rivals on Sunday.

Houston Texans +3.5 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan

The Kansas City Chiefs aren't the team they were last year. 

Whether it's fatigue from years of deep playoff runs or simply regression away from the strong variance or "luck" they've had in late-game situations the past few seasons, we need to evaluate them differently in 2025. 

Now, they have to take on a red-hot Houston Texans team that boasts the best defense in football. They rank first in opponent EPA, third in opponent success rate, second in defensive DVOA, and fourth in opponent yards per play (4.7). 

Offensively, the Texans have found their stride lately and are a dangerous unit with C.J. Stroud at quarterback. The Texans may not win, but I'd be surprised if the Chiefs are able to win by margin.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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