NFL Week 4 Best Bets (Predictions Panthers vs. Patriots, Packers vs. Cowboys on Sunday)

The SI Betting team breaks down their favorite spread bets for the NFL action in Week 4 of the 2025 season.

The Green Bay Packers and quarterback Jordan Love are favored on Sunday. / Scott Galvin-Imagn Images

Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us, and there are plenty of bets to place for a loaded slate on Sunday, Sept. 28. 

This season, Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey are going to share their favorite plays for Sunday’s action each and every week. 

There are two games that stand out above the rest on Sunday’s slate, as two undefeated teams – the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – face off while the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens both aim to get back to .500 later in the afternoon. 

This week, Dewey and MacMillan are targeting one underdog and one favorite, including a pick for the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers.  

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for each best bet in Week 4 of the 2025 season. 

NFL Best Bets for Week 4

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook.

• Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Cowboys – Iain MacMillan
• Carolina Panthers +5.5 (-110) vs. New England Patriots – Peter Dewey

Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Cowboys – Iain MacMillan

The Cowboys' secondary has been beyond horrific to start the season. 

They rank 31st in opponent dropback EPA, 27th in opponent dropback success rate, and last in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 9.4 yards per throw. 

If you think it could be because they've faced great quarterbacks to start the year, think again. Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards against them a week before being benched and Caleb Williams threw for 298 yards against them last week. 

Jordan Love is poised to have a field day against this defense. If the Cowboys want any chance of covering this spread, their offense may have to score every time they touch the ball and I don't see that happening against one of the best defenses to start the season.

Carolina Panthers +5.5 (-110) vs. New England Patriots – Peter Dewey

Even though the Carolina Panthers have won just one game in the 2025 season, they’re 2-1 against the spread and are coming off a dominant 30-0 win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3. 

Now, they take on a New England Patriots team that has also started the season 1-2 after turning the ball over five times in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday.

The Patriots have the No. 26 turnover margin per game (-1.0) in the NFL this season, and their lone win came against a winless Miami Dolphins squad that can’t seem to stop anyone on defense.

I’m shocked to see New England favored by 5.5 points in this matchup, as the Panthers (13th in defensive EPA) have actually done a decent job slowing down opponents the last two weeks. In fact, if it weren’t for two early turnovers in Week 2 against Arizona, the Panthers may have had a shot to win that game outright as well. 

Regardless, Carolina has now covered in back-to-back games, and it should be able to move the ball against a Patriots defense that is just 26th in EPA/Play in the 2025 season. On top of that, New England’s offense is below league average (17th in EPA/Play) and has struggled to move the ball on the ground (30th in Rush EPA/Play) this season.

I think Carolina can keep this game within a possession, and I really wouldn't be shocked if the Panthers won this matchup outright on Sunday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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