NFL Week 9 Best Bets (Predictions for Chiefs vs. Bills, Falcons vs. Patriots on Sunday)

The SI Betting team breaks down their favorite bets for Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season, including a pick for the Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills matchup.

The Kansas City Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are favored on Sunday. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The final week of the first half of the NFL season is here, and it’s a perfect time to place some bets on this Sunday’s action. 

There are a ton of major favorites in Week 9, but should bettors look to underdogs – or a total – on Sunday? 

In Week 8, Iain MacMillan perfectly called the Houston Texans’ win over the San Francisco 49ers, but Peter Dewey came up short with his pick on the Atlanta Falcons, who were upset by the Miami Dolphins. 

Still, this is a new week, and the NFL is reaching the halfway point of the 2025 season.

All season long, Dewey and MacMillan will share their favorite bets for Sunday’s action, and this week is no different.

We’re targeting a pair of favorites on Sunday, including a pick for the matchup of the week between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for each of these picks in Week 9.

NFL Best Bets for Week 9

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan
• New England Patriots -5.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Falcons – Peter Dewey

New England Patriots -5.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Falcons – Peter Dewey

Drake Maye and the New England Patriots have won five games in a row, and they’ve looked unstoppable on offense this season, ranking ninth in yards per play and fifth in points scored.

Plus, the advanced numbers for New England throwing the ball are off the charts:

• 7th in EPA/Play overall
• 3rd in EPA/Pass
• 10th in success rate

The Patriots are also an NFL-best 6-2 against the spread, and I think they’re primed to cover again on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta has two horrible losses this season, dropping a game 30-0 to the Carolina Panthers and 34-10 (last week) against the Miami Dolphins. The Falcons are now just 3-4 in the 2025 season and are 1-2 against the spread on the road, posting an average margin of -8.0 points in those games. 

I have a hard time trusting this Falcons team, especially with Michael Penix banged up and Kirk Cousins struggling mightily in his place in Week 8 against Miami. 

The Falcons are just 27th in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense, and they’ve scored 10 points or less in three of their seven games. Plus, the Atlanta defense allowed four passing touchdowns to a struggling Tua Tagovailoa in Week 8.

Maye – and MVP candidate this season – should be able to light up this Falcons team at home. The Patriots’ six wins have come by six, 29 (against the Carolina team that shut out Atlanta), three, six, 18 and 19 this season.

They should have no problem covering the 5.5 points on Sunday. 

Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan

Like it or not, this year's version of the Kansas City Chiefs is the best we've seen the past number of years, despite them not having as good of a record as they had last year. 

They rank second in offensive DVOA, ninth in defensive DVOA, and their EPA numbers are off the charts. 

While the Buffalo Bills also have an elite offense, their defense has plenty of issues, and injuries to a few key players including Ed Oliver is one of those problems. They enter this week ranking 20th in defensive DVOA and they've allowed 5.4 yards per play, which ranks 19th amongst all defenses. 

Kansas City is going to move the ball at will and I have faith the Chiefs will win and cover the short spread.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $300 in bonus bets instantly +3 months of NBA League Pass.