Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Expect a Defensive Battle in New Jersey)

Iain MacMillan | Dec 10, 2024

Bet the UNDER in Tuesday night's game in New Jersey between the Devils and Maple Leafs. / Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

We suffered a couple of tough losses on Monday night. The Sabres blew a two-goal third period lead to the Red Wings and eventually lost in overtime while the Ducks and Canadiens we're sitting at 2-2 five minutes into the second period and didn't score another goal, failing to hit the OVER.

All we can do is try to bounce back on Tuesday night, which is a loaded slate with most teams in action across the league. I have three bets locked in that I'm ready to break down. Let's dive into them.

• Season-to-date record: 72-57-5 (+9.84 units)

Best NHL Picks Today

• Maple Leafs vs. Devils UNDER 6.5 (-120) via BetMGM
• Kings vs. Islanders UNDER 5.5 (-115) via BetMGM
• Flames +130 vs. Predators via DraftKings

Maple Leafs vs. Devils Prediction

As I've written before in Top Shelf Picks, the Maple Leafs have become a great defensive team this season while also getting some of the best goaltending in the league from Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. As a result, they're allowing the fifth fewest goals per 60 minutes at 2.61.

The Devils are also turning into a great UNDER team of late as well. They rank fourth in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 2.02. Offensively, they've struggled to put the puck in the net lately, scoring on just 9.84% of their shots on goal.

There's enough there from both teams for me to like the UNDER 6.5 at -120 odds.

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-120)

Kings vs. Islanders Prediction

The Kings and the Islanders might just best defensive teams in the NHL right now and especially so of late. Over each team's last 10 games, the Kings and Islanders rank second and third in 5-on-5 expected goals against.

If you throw advanced numbers out the window, these two teams rank third and fifth in the NHL in 5-on-5 goals against per 60 minutes. Overall, if you consider special teams, they allow a combined 5.5 goals per 60 minutes, which is right where the total sits.

I've cashed in on a lot of UNDERs on both these teams this season so now that they're playing each other, I'll place the same bet.

Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-115)

Flames vs. Predators Prediction

The Nashville Predators simply can't buy a goal, which makes me cautious to price them as big of favorites as they're set as today. They're dead last in the NHL in shooting percentage, scoring on just 7.39% of their shots on goal, the worst mark in the league by 1.1%. As a result, they're scoring just 2.16 goals per 60 minutes. Things have gotten even worse in recent weeks, sporting a shooting percentage of 7.17% and scoring 1.99 goals per 60 minutes.

I'll take a shot on the Flames as underdogs against the spiraling Predators.

Pick: Flames +130

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!