Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (How to Bet Lightning vs. Maple Leafs)

Despite being 1-10 the last 11 times a game I bet on has gone to overtime, we continue to inch back to profit going 2-1 on Sunday night with yet another overtime loss preventing us from a 3-0 sweep.
Overtime luck has to swing in our favor at some points so let's keep doing what we're doing as we continue to dig ourselves out of the hole I got us in.
Monday night's slate is a loaded one so I'm back with another three bets, including a play against my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs.
- Season-to-date record: 94-90-6 (-3.03 units)
NHL Picks Today
- Sabres vs. Kraken OVER 5.5 (-115) via BetMGM
- Lightning -105 vs. Maple Leafs via FanDuel
- Kings -182 vs. Penguins via FanDuel
Sabres vs. Kraken Prediction
I'm surprised to see a 5.5 total in a game involving two teams who rank inside the top eight in 5-on-5 shooting percentage over the last 25 games. On top of that, Devon Levi, who is expected to start in net for the Sabres, has a save percentage of just .876 on the season.
Typically, games with a 5.5 total involve teams with putrid offenses, fantastic defenses, or strong goaltenders, but this game features none of that. I'll take the OVER.
Pick: OVER 5.5 (-115)
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction
I'm going to continue to bet against my Maple Leafs until they regress like I expect them to. They have statistically been a far worse team than they've been the past five years but yet they're winning more games than they have in those seasons, which doesn't ultimately add up. Because of that, I expect regression from this team.
Over their last 25 games, the Maple Leafs are 20th in 5-on-5 CORSI% and 24th in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage. The Lightning are 15th and 12th in those two respective categories while also sporting a top five power play unit, an area the Maple Leafs have struggled in.
Give me the Lightning in Toronto as a slight underdog.
Pick: Lightning -105
Penguins vs. Kings Prediction
The Penguins have relied on strong offensive play lately which makes this a nightmare matchup for them. The Kings have continuously been the best defensive team in the NHL. They're third in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 2.07 but their actual goals against has been somehow even better at 1.53. Darcy Kuemper has been standing on his head, sporting a save percentage of .922.
The Kings are the superior team and should be in a great spot to get the win on their home ice tonight.
Pick: Kings -182
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!