Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (How to Bet Lightning vs. Maple Leafs)

The Lightning and Maple Leafs are set as a coin-flip game in Toronto on Monday night.
The Lightning and Maple Leafs are set as a coin-flip game in Toronto on Monday night. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Despite being 1-10 the last 11 times a game I bet on has gone to overtime, we continue to inch back to profit going 2-1 on Sunday night with yet another overtime loss preventing us from a 3-0 sweep.

Overtime luck has to swing in our favor at some points so let's keep doing what we're doing as we continue to dig ourselves out of the hole I got us in.

Monday night's slate is a loaded one so I'm back with another three bets, including a play against my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs.

  • Season-to-date record: 94-90-6 (-3.03 units)

NHL Picks Today

  • Sabres vs. Kraken OVER 5.5 (-115) via BetMGM
  • Lightning -105 vs. Maple Leafs via FanDuel
  • Kings -182 vs. Penguins via FanDuel

Sabres vs. Kraken Prediction

I'm surprised to see a 5.5 total in a game involving two teams who rank inside the top eight in 5-on-5 shooting percentage over the last 25 games. On top of that, Devon Levi, who is expected to start in net for the Sabres, has a save percentage of just .876 on the season.

Typically, games with a 5.5 total involve teams with putrid offenses, fantastic defenses, or strong goaltenders, but this game features none of that. I'll take the OVER.

Pick: OVER 5.5 (-115)

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

I'm going to continue to bet against my Maple Leafs until they regress like I expect them to. They have statistically been a far worse team than they've been the past five years but yet they're winning more games than they have in those seasons, which doesn't ultimately add up. Because of that, I expect regression from this team.

Over their last 25 games, the Maple Leafs are 20th in 5-on-5 CORSI% and 24th in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage. The Lightning are 15th and 12th in those two respective categories while also sporting a top five power play unit, an area the Maple Leafs have struggled in.

Give me the Lightning in Toronto as a slight underdog.

Pick: Lightning -105

Penguins vs. Kings Prediction

The Penguins have relied on strong offensive play lately which makes this a nightmare matchup for them. The Kings have continuously been the best defensive team in the NHL. They're third in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 2.07 but their actual goals against has been somehow even better at 1.53. Darcy Kuemper has been standing on his head, sporting a save percentage of .922.

The Kings are the superior team and should be in a great spot to get the win on their home ice tonight.

Pick: Kings -182


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Iain MacMillan
IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.