No. 1 Overall Pick Odds for 2026 NFL Draft (Garrett Nussmeier Favored to Be Top Pick)

Sean Treppedi | Aug 21, 2025

Garrett Nussmeier is the new favorite to get selected first in the 2026 NFL Draft. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The market for the 2026 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick has seen some shifts in narrative as camp chatter has started to move the needle, shuffling the top quarterback prospects jockeying for position. Let’s break down the frontrunners and what their current odds reveal about their draft-day potential.

Garrett Nussmeier (+340) leads the pack after an impressive 2024 season where he smoothly stepped into LSU’s spotlight, delivering elite arm talent and poise. That campaign was a masterclass in transitioning a high-pressure role, as he threw for over 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns while maintaining solid efficiency in the SEC.

His combination of sharp pocket awareness, anticipation and a strong supporting cast has NFL scouts bullish on his ability to lead at the next level, despite some risk from his aggressive style. 

Cade Klubnik (+450) is a rising favorite with a stellar junior year jump, combining quick reads and solid mechanics despite questions about arm strength. With Clemson’s top receivers back, Klubnik is primed to prove he can command one of college football’s most talented offenses.

Lanorris Sellers (+500) offers the prototypical dual-threat package NFL teams crave — size, arm strength, and rushing ability. Though his ball security and decision-making need polish, Sellers’ trajectory as a dynamic playmaker could vault him into the top spot if he continues refining his game.

Drew Allar (+600) impressed last year with a jump in accuracy and confidence, pairing ideal size and arm strength with surprising mobility. Yet questions remain about his ball placement and performance under pressure, making key games this season critical for his draft positioning.

Arch Manning (+850) remains a tantalizing but uncertain prospect, with limited college tape but undeniable physical traits and dual-threat upside. This is his first season as the starting signal caller as a junior. He led this market to go No. 1 in the draft for the entire offseason until his grandfather, Archie Manning, made recent comments about him staying at Texas for 2026, which boosted his adversaries’ stock over his own.

His will hinge on how much he can develop under coach Sarkisian’s tutelage.

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Garrett Nussmeier: +340
• Cade Klubnik: +380
• LaNorris Sellers: +380
• Drew Allar: +470
• Arch Manning: +850
• Sam Leavitt: +2000
• Fernando Mendoza: +2000
• Peter Woods: +2000
• Keldric Faulk: +2500
• T.J. Parker: +2500
• Carson Beck: +3300
• Kadyn Proctor: +3300
• Spencer Fano: +5500
• LT Overton: +5500
• Sawyer Robertson: +5500
• Caleb Lomu: +6000
• John Mateer: +6000
• Caleb Downs: +7500
• Francis Mauigoa: +7500
• Jayden Maiava: +7500
• Rueben Bain Jr.: +7500
• Miller Moss: +7500
• Matayo Uiagalelei: +7500
• Kyron Drones: +9500
• Jordyn Tyson: +9500
• Aidan Chiles: +10000
• Jalon Daniels: +10000
• Nico Iamaleava: +10000
• Ty Simpson: +10000
• Jermaine Matthews Jr.: +11000

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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