Norfolk State vs. Florida Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Iain MacMillan | Mar 20, 2025

The Florida Gators are massive favorites against Norfolk State Spartans in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The Florida Gators have been awarded a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament after going 30-4 and winning the SEC Tournament. They'll face the No. 16 seed, Norfolk State Spartans, in the Round of 64.

Norfolk State won the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, finishing with an 11-3 conference record and then winning the tournament.

We can safely assume Florida isn't going to lose this game, but can they cover the massive point spread? Let's take a look.

Norfolk State vs. Florida Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Norfolk State +28.5 (-110)
• Florida -28.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Norfolk State +3300
• Florida -10000

Total

• OVER 153.5 (-115)
• UNDER 153.5 (-105)

Norfolk State vs. Florida How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21
• Game Time: 6:50 PM EST
• Venue: Lenovo Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Norfolk State Record: 24-10
• Florida Record: 30-4

Norfolk State vs. Florida Best Prop Bet

• Alex Condon UNDER12.5 Points (-105) via BetMGM

The Gators are going to be able to attack Norfolk State on the perimeter, but they are one of the few teams that have the size to defend 6'11 forward, Alex Condon. The Spartans of a 6'11 player of their own, Kuluel Mading. As a result, only 45.1% of the points scores against Norfolk State comes from two-point range, the 41st-best rate in college basketball. Considering Condon only averages 11.2 points per game, I'd be surprised if he reaches 13 in this one.

Norfolk State vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

Norfolk State is a good enough team to keep this game within 28 points. They enter the NCAA Tournament ranking 98th in the country in effective field goal percentage at 52.4%. They also stylistically match up well with Florida. The Spartans have defended the two-point shot well all season and they have the ability to attack the interior of the Florida defense.

72.3% of Norfolk State's shots come from two-point range, the fifth-highest rate in college basketball. Now, they get to face a Florida team who has 50.5% of the points scored against them coming from two-point range which ranks 225th in the country.

Norfolk State has the size to match the big men from Florida, including 6'11 Kuluel Mading.

Obviously, Florida is going to win this game, but I think the Spartans can cover this massive number.

Pick: Norfolk State +28.5 (-110) via BetMGM

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