North Texas vs. UC Irvine Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NIT Semifinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the North Texas-UC Irvine matchup in the NIT semifinals.

North Texas is one of the best defensive teams in the country. / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

A trip to the NIT Final is on the line on Tuesday night as the North Texas Mean Green take on the UC Irvine Anteaters in a matchup between two of the better defenses in all of college basketball.

North Texas (out of the AAC) advanced to the semifinals by beating Furman, Arkansas State and Oklahoma State. Meanwhile, the Anteaters rode a top seed to wins over Northern Colorado, Jacksonville State and UAB.

Oddsmakers have North Texas set as a slight favorite in this game, but can it beat the team that finished second in the Big West during the regular season?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this semifinal matchup. 

North Texas vs. UC Irvine Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• North Texas -1.5 (-110)
• UC Irvine +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• North Texas: -125
• UC Irvine: +105

Total

• 128.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

North Texas vs. UC Irvine How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, April 1
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• North Texas record: 27-8
• UC Irvine record: 31-6

North Texas vs. UC Irvine Key Players to Watch

North Texas

Atin Wright: Wright is coming off a 15-point game against Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals, and he’s averaging 14.9 points per game this season while shooting 40.1 percent from 3-point range and over 94 percent from the line. If this game is close at the end, I’d expect Wright to have the ball in his hands a ton for the Mean Green. 

UC Irvine

Bent Leuchten: A seven-footer and senior, Leuchten is going to be a tough matchup for the Mean Green. This season, the big man is averaging 15.4 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game while shooting 54.8 percent from the field and 43.9 percent from 3. He went for 18 points and 10 rebounds in the win over UAB in the quarterfinals.

North Texas vs. UC Irvine Prediction and Pick

This game is going to be won in the half court, as the Mean Green play at the No. 362nd adjusted tempo in the country.

As a result, the UNDER has hit at a solid rate (17-15-1) in North Texas’ matchups. On top of that UC Irvine has hit the UNDER 21 times in the 2024-25 season.

These are two elite defensive teams in several metrics:

• UC Irvine is No. 19 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency
• North Texas is No. 42 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency
• North Texas is No. 3 in the country in opponent points per game (59.9)
• UC Irvine is No. 38 in the country in opponent points per game (66.5)
• North Texas ranks in the top 50 in opponent field goal percentage, 3s made and total rebounds
• UC Irvine ranks No. 2 in the country in opponent 2-point percentage

To top it off, North Texas is a terrible offensive team, ranking outside the top 300 in the country in points per game, 3-point attempts, assists and field goal attempts per game. The Mean Green are just 153rd in the country in field goal percentage as well.

Seeing as both of these teams would prefer – and need to – rely on their defenses, I’m expecting a slug fest in this semifinal matchup. 

Pick: UNDER 128.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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