Northwestern vs. Minnesota Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Big Ten Tournament First Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Northwestern-Minnesota matchup in the Big Ten Tournament.

Northwestern Wildcats forward Nick Martinelli is an interesting prop target on Wednesday. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Big Ten Tournament gets underway on Wednesday afternoon, and the Northwestern Wildcats and Minnesota Golden Gophers are both hoping to make a Cinderella run that would give them a chance to make the NCAA Tournament.

Without that, a spot in March Madness is unlikely for these ballclubs, as they’re both hovering around the .500 mark in the 2024-25 season.

Northwestern is favored in this game, and it has a win over Minnesota under its belt from earlier in the season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this Big Ten Tournament battle. 

Northwestern vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Northwestern -2.5 (-120)
• Minnesota +2.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Northwestern: -166
• Minnesota: +140

Total

• 127.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Northwestern vs. Minnesota How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 12
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Northwestern record: 16-15 (7-13 Big Ten)
• Minnesota record: 15-16 (7-13 Big Ten)

Northwestern vs. Minnesota Key Players to Watch

Northwestern

Nick Martinelli: You can’t talk about the Wildcats without mentioning the leading scorer in the Big Ten this season. Martinelli is averaging 20.2 points per game while shooting an impressive 46.7 percent from the field and 35.2 percent from 3. He’s a high-volume scorer, attempting 16.0 shots per game. In his previous meeting against the Golden Gophers, Martinelli scored 29 points and chipped in five rebounds in a Northwestern win. 

Minnesota 

Dawson Garcia: The Golden Gophers have a high-volume scorer of their own, as forward Dawson Garcia is averaging 19.1 points per game while shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from 3 this season. He also had a big game the last time these teams met, playing all 40 minutes while scoring 26 points to go along with nine rebounds. 

Northwestern vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick

These teams played in late February, with the Wildcats picking up a 12-point win on the road, and I’m shocked to see them only favored by 2.5 in this Big Ten Tournament clash. 

Northwestern, despite a pedestrian record, is the No. 47 team in KenPom this season, and it ranks inside the top 65 in the country in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

Not only that, but the Wildcats significantly outrank the Golden Gophers on offense, as Minnesota is just 107th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Both of these teams play at a slow pace (outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo), so it makes sense that oddsmakers expect this to be a low-scoring affair. However, in a game that is slowed down, I favor the more efficient offense. 

Northwestern is a much better 3-point shooting team than Minnesota, and it averages nearly five more points per game. The Wildcats can cover in this afternoon's matchup. 

Pick: Northwestern -2.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.