Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Prop Bets for ACC Tournament Second Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 12, 2025

Mar 8, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) with the ball as Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) defends in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Notre Dame won a thriller in regulation to extend its ACC Tournament run, and now can potentially spoil North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament hopes with a stunning upset.

The Fighting Irish nearly took down the Tar Heels early on in ACC play as North Carolina has dealt with floundering expectations all year long. However, the team is playing its best basketball now, winners of six of seven and poised to make the NCAA Tournament with a strong showing in Charlotte. 

Can the team show out in the second round? Here’s our betting preview. 

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Notre Dame: +10.5 (-120)
• North Carolina: -10.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Notre Dame: +390
• North Carolina: -530

Total: 145.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 12
• Game Time: 2:30 PM EST
• Venue: Spectrum Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Notre Dame Record: 15-17
• North Carolina Record: 20-12

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Best Player Prop Bets

Notre Dame

Markus Burton UNDER 23.5 Points (-122)

Burton is the engine behind the Notre Dame offense, but I don’t trust him to put up well above his season average of 21 points per game after playing 34 minutes in a grinding affair against Pitt. 

While North Carolina plays at one of the faster paces in the ACC, I don’t believe that will lead to much more output from Burton, who scored 23 points in the first meeting.

North Carolina

Elliot Cadeau UNDER 6.5 Assists (-140)

Cadeau is averaging six assists per game for the potent North Carolina offense, but I don’t see a high output from him in this one as Notre Dame’s compact defense will likely force the ball out of Cadeau’s hands. 

The guard is more of a distributor from the paint, but it’s tough to shift Notre Dame’s defense that ranks higher than the league average in three-point rate allowed. 

He has also seen his minutes continue to drop during the season, not playing more than 30 minutes since the beginning of February, the team’s most recent loss prior to the Duke one last Saturday. In that time frame, UNC won six of seven games with Cadeau staying under this number in five of those seven. 

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

Notre Dame’s offense struggled mightily in its first round matchup against Pitt, scoring only 55 points to advance past the Panthers. 

However, I’m going to bet the over in this matchup against North Carolina after the Fighting Irish found success against the Tar Heels leaky defense already this season and a matchup that should feature more possessions than a typical Notre Dame game. 

ND has struggled to limit transition offenses all season, which should suit the Tar Heels nicely, who play at the second fastest tempo in ACC play, per KenPom. 

However, the Tar Heels' defense remains a concern, and I prefer to trust the Fighting Irish offense to find its rhythm in Charlotte. The KenPom projection is 153, but given the team’s shaky performance in the first round is down to 145.5. 

I’m going to play back against it and go over with North Carolina’s pace sending it over the total. 

PICK: OVER 145.5 (-108, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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