Notre Dame vs. TCU Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Notre Dame-TCU matchup in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.

Notre Dame guard Hannah Hidalgo is looking to lead her team to a win as a favorite on Saturday. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

An intriguing No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup takes place in the Sweet 16 on Saturday as Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles, and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the TCU Horned Frogs and Hailey Van Lith.

TCU had a terrific season in the Big 12, and it picked up 22-point and 15-point wins to advance to the Sweet 16.

Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish survived an injury scare for Miles in the first round and picked up a 19-point win over Michigan in the Round of 32.

Once the No. 1 team in the country in the AP Poll, Notre Dame may be a little undervalued as a No. 3 seed – and oddsmakers have taken notice.

The Fighting Irish are favored in this game by 5.5 points in the latest odds, but can they win and cover?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup.

Notre Dame vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• Notre Dame -5.5 (-106)
• TCU +5.5 (-114)

Moneyline

• Notre Dame: -220
• TCU: +176

Total

• 144 (Over-114/Under -106)

Notre Dame vs. TCU How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 29
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Legacy Arena at BJCC
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Notre Dame record: 28-5
• TCU record: 33-3

Notre Dame vs. TCU Key Players to Watch

Notre Dame 

Hannah Hidalgo: One of the best guards in the country, Hidalgo led the way against Michigan with 21 points, and she’ll be relied on heavily in this matchup. Overall this season, Hidalgo is averaging 24.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. 

TCU

Hailey Van Lith: This season has been a resurgence for Van Lith, who is averaging 17.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game while winning the Big 12 Player of the Year award. She had 16 points, five rebounds, and 10 assists against one of her former teams (Louisville) in the second round of the tournament. 

Notre Dame vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

As great of a season as this has been for TCU, I think it may struggle against the elite guard play of the Fighting Irish.

All season long, TCU has burned teams by hitting over 38 percent of its 3-pointers (the sixth-best mark in the country), but now it has to face a Notre Dame team that wins the 3-point battle on a nightly basis.

Not only do the Fighting Irish lead the country in 3-point percentage, but they’re 15th in opponent 3-point percentage (27.0 percent) this season. TCU isn’t nearly as good on the defensive end, ranking outside the top 200 in opponent 3-point percentage despite allowing just 57.5 points per game. 

This Notre Dame team relies on elite guard play on both ends of the floor (Hidalgo led the ACC in steals per game), and I think it has more depth than this TCU squad that relies heavily on
Van Lith, Sedona Prince, and Madison Conner. No other player on the team even averages seven points per game. 

I’ll lay the points with the Fighting Irish, who I have as a Final Four team this season. 

Pick: Notre Dame -5.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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