Novak Djokovic vs. Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction, Odds for US Open Fourth Round

Betting odds, pick an prediction for the fourth-round US Open match between Novak Djokovic and Jan-Lennard Struff.

Novak Djokovic is favored to reach the quarterfinals on Sunday. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Four-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic is looking to reach the quarterfinals of the tournament for the 14th time in his career on Sunday, and he’ll take on Jan-Lennard Struff in the fourth round.

Struff had never made it out of the third round of the US Open prior to 2025, and the 35-year-old is looking to continue a magical run after earning a spot in the tournament with multiple wins in qualifiers. 

Oddsmakers have Djokovic set as a sizable favorite in the fourth round (-800), but he hasn’t exactly been dominant in the 2025 US Open, as he needed four sets in both the second and third rounds to advance.

Can he take care of Struff, who has never beaten him in his career?

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to the fourth round and my prediction for this match on Sunday night. 

Novak Djokovic vs. Jan-Lennard Struff Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Novak Djokovic: -800
• Jan-Lennard Struff: +500

Total

• 35.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Novak Djokovic vs. Jan-Lennard Struff How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 31
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2/ESPN+

Novak Djokovic: How Did They Get Here? 

Djokovic has knocked off Learner Tien, Zachary Svajda and Cameron Norrie on his way to the fourth round, but he has played a significant number of games after dropping at least one set in each of his last two matches.

However, this could be a favorable matchup for him, as the 35-year-old Struff is 0-7 against Djokovic in his career and has won just one set against him all time. They have not played each other since 2021, but Djokovic did knock Struff out of the 2020 US Open.

Jan-Lennard Struff: How Did They Get Here? 

Struff’s struggles against Djokovic are well-documented, but he has played well at the 2025 US Open after winning a few qualifying matches. 

Struff has knocked off two top-20 players – No. 11 Holger Rune in Round 2 and No. 17 Frances Tiafoe in Round 3 – to make the fourth round for the first time in his career at the US Open.

Now, he’s looking to make a quarterfinal of a Grand Slam for the first time ever, although he has multiple fourth-round exits in the French Open.  

Novak Djokovic vs. Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds for this fourth-round match – Djokovic -800 – the Serbian has an implied probability of 88.89 percent to advance to the quarterfinals. 

Djokovic has been dominant against Struff in his career, but it’s hard to put too much stock into their previous seven meetings, as they have not played each other in four years.

Struff doesn’t have anywhere near the profile that Djokovic does at the US Open, but I still think there is some value in betting the OVER in the total games for Sunday’s match. 

Djokovic has just one win in straight sets at this year’s US Open, needing 28, 38 and 40 games to win his matches. Struff has taken even more time to pull off his upsets, playing 40, 52 and 32 games, going OVER this total two times. The only match he didn't clear this total was in the third round against Tiafoe, and he won that match in straight sets and still played 32 games.

If this match goes four or more than three sets, the OVER will almost certainly hit. 

Pick:OVER 35.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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