Odds to Win Conference USA in 2025 College Football Season (Liberty Opens as Heavy Favorite)

Sean Treppedi | Aug 19, 2025

Jamey Chadwell's Liberty Flames are heavy favorites to win Conference USA's 2025 title at +115. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Conference USA has a way of staying in the national conversation without anyone fully realizing it’s happening. Every fall, this league serves up high-scoring shootouts, fast risers from the FCS ranks, and enough quarterback turnover to make a transfer portal tracker dizzy. It’s a conference in constant motion — coaches cycling in and out, rosters reshaped by double-digit transfers.

The Liberty Flames are +115 to win Conference USA. They opened last season as the clear CUSA favorite but stumbled to a 9-4 mark after their big-play passing attack vanished without CJ Daniels. Jamey Chadwell’s track record says that’s a blip, not a trend — his offenses, whether at Coastal Carolina or Liberty, almost always hum. Ethan Vasko takes over at quarterback behind a veteran offensive line, with new weapons in Jamari Person and a pair of speedy returners on the outside. 

The run game is unproven after losing Quinton Cooley, but Chadwell has consistently produced 1,000-yard backs, and the talent is there. Defensively, the Flames bring back a ton of upperclassmen, but they’ll need a pass rush without sack leader TJ Bush Jr. to truly control games. On paper, Liberty’s the most complete team in the league — but last year proved paper doesn’t win championships.

Few programs in the country reinvent themselves annually as effectively as Tyson Helton’s Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, who open at +460. This year, WKU’s reset comes with a familiar formula: import an FCS offensive brain trust and quarterback, then let the passing game fly. Enter Rick Bowie and Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian, fresh off one of the most prolific aerial attacks at that level. 

McIvor inherits a deep, transfer-heavy receiving corps with legitimate big-play chops, and if the offensive line gels quickly, WKU could again be among the nation’s most explosive passing offenses. The defense, overhauled via portal, is a bigger question mark and will be counted on to learn on the fly. Helton has navigated similar roster churn before, but with just two starters back, this might be his toughest reboot yet.

After three seasons of uneven results under Sonny Cumbie at Louisiana Tech, 2025 feels like a swing year in Ruston. The Bulldogs’ offense is young but no longer green — quarterback Evan Bullock impressed as a freshman, Omiri Wiggins brings juice in the backfield, and the receiving corps has speed to spare. 

The return of veteran play-caller Tony Franklin should mean more vertical shots and tempo, a needed change after ranking near the bottom of CUSA in scoring. The defense took a big leap forward in 2024, but now transitions to new coordinator Luke Olson, who inherits a strong secondary but must rebuild the front six from scratch. If the offense matures quickly, Louisiana Tech could be the team no one wants to see in November.

UTEP was snakebitten last year — injuries, close losses, and brutal turnover luck buried them before Halloween. Yet, the Miners showed life late, and coach Scotty Walden wasted no time overhauling the roster. Thirty transfers arrived, headlined by former USC/Boise State quarterback Malachi Nelson and ex-Charlotte running back Hahsaun Wilson, whose speed could fix a run game that flatlined in 2024. 

New coordinators Mark Cala (offense) and Bobby Daly (defense) bring aggressive, up-tempo philosophies, and there’s veteran star power in receiver Kenny Odom, defensive tackle KD Johnson, and linebacker Nate Dyman. The schedule isn’t easy, but if Nelson or incumbent Skyler Locklear finds rhythm early, UTEP has the skill talent — and now the depth — to upgrade into contention as my dark horse pick in the conference.

Conference USA 2025 Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Liberty: +115
• Western Kentucky: +460
• Louisiana Tech: +900
• Jacksonville State: +1100
• Sam Houston State: +1100
• UTEP: +1300
• FIU: +1600
• Middle Tennessee: +1700
• New Mexico State: +2200
• Kennesaw State: +3000

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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