Odds to Win the Mountain West in 2025 College Football Season (Boise State Favored to Win Third Straight Title)

Sean Treppedi | Aug 19, 2025

Spencer Danielson leads Boise State into 2025 as favorites to win the Mountain West for the third straight year. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Once again, the Mountain West enters a season with the West’s mid-major crown very much up for grabs — but with a familiar heavyweight sitting in pole position. This is the conference’s final year in its current makeup before realignment shuffles the deck. 

Boise State’s grip on Mountain West supremacy hasn’t loosened much, and 2025 shapes up as another year where the Broncos set the pace as odds-on favorites at -115. They lost All-American running back Ashton Jeanty, but the offense still boasts one of the Group of 5’s steadiest quarterbacks in Maddux Madsen, a deep backfield led by Sire Gaines and Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, and the league’s top offensive line.

Tight end Matt Lauter headlines a pass-catching group that needs a new deep threat but remains reliable in the short and intermediate game. 

Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Braxton Fely anchor a front seven built to dominate the trenches, while the secondary has experience and ball skills on defense. With both talent and continuity in place, Boise has the highest floor in the conference and the depth to weather injuries. The Broncos will be tested early, but if they survive September intact, they’ll likely be playing for another conference crown.

The UNLV Rebels have swapped stability for intrigue in 2025, replacing Barry Odom with proven SEC veteran Dan Mullen. Only two starters return, but Mullen’s transfer-heavy roster features a stunning 16 former blue-chip recruits and immediate upgrades at nearly every skill position. Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea and Michigan’s Alex Orji are battling to lead an offense that should be run-heavy early with Jai’Den Thomas and Utah transfer Jaylon Glover. 

On defense, linebacker Marsel McDuffie is the lone returning starter from a unit that allowed just 21.3 points per game, with LSU, Georgia, and Texas A&M imports headlining the rebuild. This is a chemistry experiment on a grand scale — if it clicks quickly, UNLV could be a live threat to win the league again; if it sputters, it could just as easily slide to the middle of the pack.

Ken Niumatalolo’s debut season with San Jose State was about stabilizing the program, and Year 2 could be about contending. The Spartans return their starting quarterback, leading rusher, and three offensive line starters, along with much of their defensive front seven. Walker Eget has capable backs in Floyd Chalk IV and Jabari Bates, while Matthew Coleman steps into the WR1 role. 

The defense’s linebacker duo of Jordan Pollard and Taniela Latu is among the best in the Mountain West, though the secondary is largely rebuilt with a mix of blue-chip transfers and JUCO standouts. Most importantly, SJSU avoids both Boise State and UNLV on the schedule, giving them a clear path to stockpile wins.

The roster may not have the same star power as recent years, but the mix of continuity, coaching, and scheduling luck makes the Spartans a legitimate sleeper to crash the title game.

In the dark horse department, I’m looking at Colorado State at +1800. It made a quiet leap in 2024, winning eight games and narrowly missing the conference championship, and now they’re trying to prove it wasn’t a one-off. Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns with more than 6,000 career passing yards, but he’ll be throwing to a mostly new set of receivers via transfer portal.

The schedule front-loads winnable games before November showdowns with UNLV and Boise State, giving CSU a chance to build momentum. They’re a long shot, but with a veteran QB and strategic portal pickups, the Rams are the kind of underdog who could sneak into the title mix if the breaks fall their way.

Mountain West Conference 2025 Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Boise State: -155
• UNLV: +700
• San Jose State: +1000
• Fresno State: +1200
• Air Force: +1400
• Hawaii: +1700
• Colorado State: +1800
• Wyoming: +2800
• San Diego State: +3000
• Utah State: +5500
• Nevada: +8000
• New Mexico: +20000

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