Oilers vs. Stars Prediction, Odds, Best NHL Prop Bet for West Final Game 5

Sean Treppedi | May 29, 2025

Tyler Seguin reveals some promising underlying offensive metrics, which points us to his goals prop in Game 5. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Edmonton Oilers have the Dallas Stars on the brink in the Western Conference Final, seizing a 3-1 series lead in Tuesday’s 4-1 victory and now sitting one decision away from returning to the Cup Final. 

Edmonton outshot Dallas 13-4 in the final frame, which they scored twice in to seal the game out of reach. The bad news is that the Oilers have lost Zach Hyman for the rest of the playoffs after he was clipped at the blue line and suffered an upper-body injury that will require surgery. 

With Dallas starving for a win after dropping three straight and heading back home, oddsmakers are favoring the Stars to take Game 5. 

I’ll give my player prop and a game prediction for the Thursday’s do-or-die tilt at American 

Oilers vs. Stars Odds, Puck Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Puck Line

• Oilers +1.5 (-140)
• Stars -1.5 (+190)

Moneyline

• Oilers (+108)
• Stars (-130) 

Total

• Over 5.5 (-130)
• Under 5.5 (+106)

Oilers vs. Stars How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 29
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Venue: American Airlines Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Edmonton 3-1

Oilers vs. Stars Best NHL Prop Bet

• Tyler Seguin Anytime Goal Scorer (+520 at FanDuel)

Seguin scored a pair of goals in the 6-1 Game win and went silent along with the rest of his teammates ever since. But in a series where finding offense has been frustrating for Dallas, Seguin leads the team with six high-danger scoring chances, 10 shots, and 19 overall chances per Natural Stat Trick. 

Those efforts have generated an individual expected goal total of 1.33, which is second on the Stars. He ranks within the top 20 of players in these playoffs with 5.2 expected goals through 17 games. Look for the veteran to cash in with the season on the line Thursday. 

Oilers vs. Stars Prediction and Pick

On paper, this looks to be all Oilers since Game 1, but there’s a deeper narrative that’s not getting the results. Dallas has strongly commanded 5-on-5 puck possession since Game 3 and is dominating the Oilers in overall chances 217-184 per Natural Stat Trick. In fact, in all situations, the Stars have had the advantage since puck drop in Game 3.

OK, so what gives? I don’t think it’s necessary to place all the blame on Oettinger, who was shakier than usual in the first three games of this series before posting a sound .935 save percentage on 31 shots on Tuesday. He still has the shortest Conn Smythe odds on the Stars roster. Oettinger stopped all three high-danger shots he faced in Game 4, as the series is now tied 8-8 in high-danger chances. He still ranks considerably above Stuart Skinner in goals saved above expected in the playoffs by a 2.6-goal margin. 

Oilers stars have been piling on the offense as five players have a pair of goals through the first four games, while the Stars have conjured two goals in the last three games. With Hyman now out, the Oilers lose some of that punch. 

Skinner hasn’t given any reason for doubts since Game 2, but the Stars still have an expected goals advantage in this series, 4.3 to 3.7. Let’s take the chalk on the Stars to extend this back to Alberta.

Pick: Stars (-130 at FanDuel)

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