Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 7

Texas is favored in the Red River Rivalry matchup.

The Texas Longhorns and quarterback Arch Manning are favored in Week 7. / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Week 7 of the college football season features one of the biggest rivalries in the sport, as the Oklahoma Sooners take on the Texas Longhorns in this year’s Red River Rivalry matchup.

These teams are in very different spots through five games, as the Sooners are the No. 6 team in the country and undefeated to this point. Even with quarterback John Mateer (hand) banged up and potentially out for this game, the Sooners are still just three-point road underdogs in Week 7.

That’s because Texas has fallen out of the top-25 after losing to Florida in Week 6. The Longhorns are just 3-2, and the Arch Manning experience has gone terribly so far in 2025. 

Can Texas bounce back against a potentially shorthanded Oklahoma team?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this rivalry matchup on Saturday afternoon. 

Oklahoma vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Oklahoma +3 (-115)
• Texas -3 (-105)

Moneyline

• Oklahoma: +120
• Texas: -142

Total

• 42.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Oklahoma vs. Texas How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 11
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Cotton Bowl
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Oklahoma record: 5-0
• Texas record: 3-2

Oklahoma vs. Texas Key Players to Watch

Arch Manning, Quarterback, Texas

It’s been a rough season for Arch Manning in his first campaign as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback. He’s lost games to Ohio State and Florida, throwing five interceptions in five contests.

While the former Heisman favorite has beat up on inferior competition, he faces a tough test in Week 7 against a Sooners defense that is No. 1 in success rate and No. 1 in EPA/Play this season.

Oklahoma has yet to allow 20 points in a game this season, and it should give Manning problems after he struggled to get anything going against Florida in Week 6. 

Overall, Manning has completed just 60.0 percent of his passes for 1,151 yards, 11 scores and five picks in 2025. He’s also added 160 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. 

Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

No matter who is at quarterback for Oklahoma, I believe this game will be dominated by both defenses.

The Sooners have the No. 1 defense in the country in terms of EPA/Play, and they have held opponents to three, 13, three, 17 and zero points in their five games. Overall, Oklahoma has just two games where it has cleared this total, including a 44-0 win over Kent State in Week 6. 

On the other side, the Longhorns are an impressive defense as well, holding Ohio State to just 14 points in their season opener. They rank 20th in EPA/Play on defense and 21st in defensive success rate.

If Mateer is unable to go for Oklahoma, it’s a clear downgrade to the team’s offense in Week 7. On top of that, Texas has looked out or sorts with Manning under center, and he’s struggled mightily against Power Four competition. 

Oklahoma should prove that it is one of the top defensive teams in the country with a shutdown performance against Arch in Week 7. 

Pick: UNDER 42.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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