Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Reed Wallach | Mar 26, 2025

Mar 23, 2025; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Mississippi Rebels guard Sean Pedulla (3) shoots against the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

No. 6 seed in the South Region Ole Miss pulled one of the stunners of the second round, blowing out No. 3 seed Iowa State in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. 

The Rebels are now into the Sweet 16 to face No. 2 seed Michigan State, who navigated a tricky second-round matchup against New Mexico in the second round, pulling away in the final minutes. 

Ole Miss will look to outduel Michigan State’s stifling defense as small betting underdogs, but how do the two teams match up? We have you covered below. 

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Ole Miss: +3.5 (-115)
• Michigan State: -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Ole Miss: +132
• Michigan State: -160

Total: 153.5 (Over -112/Under -109)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 28th
• Game Time: 7:09 PM EST
• Venue: State Farm Center
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Ole Miss Record: 24-11
• Michigan State Record: 29-3

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Key Players to Watch

Ole Miss

Sean Pedulla: The Virginia Tech transfer had two massive games against North Carolina and Iowa State in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, combining for 40 points with eight rebounds, 13 assists, and six steals. How will he handle facing an elite Michigan State perimeter defense? 

Michigan State

Jase Richardson: The freshman struggled in the second round against New Mexico, making only one of his 10 field goal attempts, finishing with six points, four rebounds, and four assists. However, it’s clear that the freshman is integral to the Spartans' success, and he’ll need to have a bounceback effort for the team to get past Ole Miss. 

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

While Michigan State will bolster a massive rebounding edge in this one and can punish Ole Miss on the interior, I can’t trust the Spartans to pull away and cover the spread in the second half as it has in its first two games of the NCAA Tournament. 

Michigan State is second in the country in rebounding percentage, but the team continues to have jarring two-way splits from the perimeter, ranking 321st in the nation in three-point percentage and tops in three-point percentage allowed. 

Ole Miss is 318th in rebounding percentage, but its defense is built to keep the Spartans outside of the paint, allowing the 47th-highest three-point rate. On the other side, Ole Miss has proven shot-makers from the perimeter, 122nd in three-point percentage and taking them at a national average clip. 

If the Rebels can get going from the perimeter, Chris Beard’s group will be live for the upset against a Michigan State team that has run incredibly well at defending the perimeter. 

I’m willing to take a chance at fading Sparty in the Sweet 16 given the way this matchup sets up for Ole Miss as Michigan State has been reliant on unsustainable three-point splits. 

PICK: Ole Miss +3.5 (-115, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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