Orioles vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, June 16

Can Zach Elfin lead the O's to an upset win?

Baltimore Orioles starter Zach Eflin has led his team to a 6-3 record in nine starts. / Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

Both the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are on three-game winning streaks heading into Monday night’s matchup at George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Tampa Bay has been playing home games at the New York Yankees’ spring training facility after there was damage to the roof at Tropicana Field during Hurricane Milton. Despite that, Tampa Bay is still three games over .500 at home and in second place in the AL East, just 3.5 games behind New York.

The 2025 season has been a rough one for the Orioles, who fired manager Brandon Hyde after a slow start to the campaign. Baltimore is beginning to turn things around, sitting just 12 games out of first in the division despite being 10 games under .500.

On Monday, the Rays have Ryan Pepiot (3.31 ERA) on the mound against Orioles veteran Zach Eflin (4.08 ERA). Eflin is pitching against his former team after the Rays traded him to Baltimore during the 2024 season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my prediction for Monday’s matchup. 

Orioles vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Orioles -1.5 (+155)
• Rays +1.5 (-190)

Moneyline

• Orioles: -106
• Rays: -115

Total

• 8.5 (Over -117/Under -103)

Orioles vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

• Baltimore: Zach Eflin (6-2, 4.08 ERA)
• Tampa Bay: Ryan Pepiot (3-6, 3.31 ERA)

Orioles vs. Rays How to Watch 

• Date: Monday, June 16
• Time: 7:35 p.m. EST 
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• How to Watch (TV): FDSSUN, MASN2
• Orioles record: 30-40
• Rays record: 39-32

Orioles vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

• Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Gunnar Henderson is in a great position to leave the yard on Monday: 

Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson has just eight home runs in the 2025 season, but I love his matchup on Monday night against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Henderson is facing Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot, who has given up 13 home runs in 14 appearances in the 2025 season. While Pepiot has a solid 3.31 ERA, he has allowed at least one long ball in eight outings in 2025.

In his career against Pepiot, Henderson is hitting .333 (2-for-6) with one homer. He’s also crushed right-handed pitching in 2025, posting a .321/.393/.541 slash line with seven of his eight home runs.

Over the last seven days, Henderson is hitting .409, and he’s hitting an impressive .312 over the last 28 days (25 games). 

I’ll back him to stay hot in this divisional matchup. 

Orioles vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

While the Orioles are in last place in the AL East, I actually think they’re a little undervalued with Eflin on the mound on Monday.

This season, Eflin has a 4.08 ERA, but his expected ERA (3.45) ranks in the 66th percentile amongst MLB pitchers. The O’s have also fared well in his starts, winning six of his nine appearances.

Over his last three starts, Eflin has been great, allowing just four earned runs in 19.2 innings of work, pitching at least six innings in every one of those games. The Orioles have won all three of those outings.

Meanwhile, Pepiot’s ERA may be a bit of a smoke screen for the Rays. Tampa Bay is just 5-9 in his 14 outings, and the young righty has an expected ERA of 4.10 and a Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.27.

Both of those are signs that regression is coming for Pepiot, who has given up 69 hits and 13 homers so far in 2025. While he has a 1.13 WHIP, the Rays righty ranks in just the 32nd percentile in average exit velocity against and the 36th percentile in barrel percentage.

The Rays are just 2-6 in Pepiot’s last eight starts, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them come up short again on Monday. 

Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-106 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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