Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, May 22

The Boston Red Sox took two of three games from the New York Mets to open the week, but a loss in Wednesday’s series finale dropped Boston below .500 in the 2025 campaign.

On Thursday, the Sox begin a series with the Baltimore Orioles, who fired their manager earlier this month and sit at just 16-32 in the 2025 season – 13 games out of first in the AL East.

Boston is favored in the latest odds, but the Red Sox will need a strong start from Lucas Giolito (7.08 ERA this season) if they want to get back to .500 in the 2025 campaign.

He’ll take on Orioles lefty Cade Povich, who has a 5.23 ERA so far in 2025.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s contest.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Orioles +1.5 (-192)
Red Sox -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline

Orioles: +110
Red Sox: -130

Total

8 (Over -115/Under -105)

Orioles vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

Baltimore: Cade Povich (1-3, 5.23 ERA)
Boston: Lucas Giolito (1-1, 7.08 ERA)

Orioles vs. Red Sox How to Watch

Date: Thursday, May 22
Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Fenway Park
How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, NESN, MASN
Orioles record: 16-32
Red Sox record: 25-26

Orioles vs. Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props – Daily Dinger – why Alex Bregman is undervalued against the O’s:

Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman is looking like one of the best acquisitions of the offseason, as he’s hitting .297 with 11 homers and a .935 OPS.

While 10 of Bregman’s home runs have come against right-handed pitching in 2025, I’m buying him against Baltimore Orioles lefty Cade Povich on Thursday.

The power hasn’t been there just yet for Bregman against lefties, but he’s still posted a better OPS against them this season (.991) than righties. Bregman is hitting an impressive .364 against southpaws, racking up 16 hits in 44 at bats.

Povich has struggled with limiting home runs this season, allowing eight in as many appearances.

Plus, the Baltimore bullpen has given up 27 homers already in the 2025 season and has one of the 10 worst ERAs in MLB.

Bregman is worth a shot at this price on Thursday.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Giolito has only made four starts in the 2025 season, but he’s allowed three or more runs in three of them and six or more runs in two of them.

So, Boston may have its work cut out for it – even against a struggling Orioles team.

Meanwhile, the O’s are 28th in MLB in team ERA (5.45) this season, and Povich has allowed at least three runs in five of his eight outings in 2025.

While the Baltimore offense has not been great in 2025, ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in many major statistical categories, the Red Sox are seventh in OPS and seventh in runs scored so far this season.

Since neither starter has fared well in 2025, and the O’s are 25th in bullpen ERA, I’ll take the OVER between these AL East rivals.

Pick: OVER 8 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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