Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 5

The Thunder are favored in Game 5, but can they cover the spread? Indiana is 9-4 ATS as an underdog this postseason.

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton is a solid prop target in Game 5. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals is the ultimate swing game, as the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are knotted at two games apiece heading into Monday night’s action.

OKC stormed back on the road in Game 4 to avoid a 3-1 series deficit, and oddsmakers have responded by setting the Thunder as 9.5-point favorites in Game 5 and -450 favorites to win the series.

However, Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers have thrived in the underdog role all postseason long, going 9-4 against the spread, winning all nine of those games outright – including Game 1 of this series.

Indy split the last time these teams played in OKC, and it’ll need to win at least one road game to win the title. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander carried the Thunder home in Game 4, but he did not record an assist, as the Pacers made it extremely tough on him to get the ball in any capacity on offense. While the league MVP still found a way to score, he played off the ball a ton with Jalen Williams running the point.

Will we see more of that in Game 5?

I have a full breakdown of this game, including the latest odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my game prediction. 

Let’s dive into all of it for Game 5 of the NBA Finals. 

Pacers vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Pacers +9.5 (-112)
• Thunder -9.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Pacers: +320
• Thunder: -410

Total

• 224.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pacers vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 16
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Tied 2-2

Pacers vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Pacers Injury Report

• Isaiah Jackson – out
• Jarace Walker – out

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic – out

Pacers vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Indiana Pacers Best Prop Bet

• Tyrese Haliburton OVER 17.5 Points (-110)

After a slow start to the series in Oklahoma City, Tyrese Haliburton has been much more aggressive over the last two games.

He scored 22 points on 17 shots in Game 3 and 18 points on 15 shots in Game 4. The star guard is getting in the paint more often than he was earlier in the series, and it’s helped him boost his scoring numbers. 

While the Thunder did have Lu Dort pressure Haliburton more in Game 4, I think this line is a little low for the Pacers star. Haliburton has taken at least 13 shots in every game in this series, and he’s going to have the ball in his hands a ton for this offense.

With Indy needing all it can get from Haliburton and Pascal Siakam to stay alive on the road, I think 17.5 points is too low of a line on Monday night. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Best Prop Bet

• Chet Holmgren OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-130)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Chet Holmgren is a great bet on Monday night: 

It’s been clear in this series that Mark Daigneault prefers to play small against Indiana, using Chet Holmgren as the team’s primary center.

That was on full display in Game 4, as Holmgren played 37:11 and put together a huge double-double, scoring 14 points and grabbing 15 rebounds (four offensive) in the process.

It was the second time in as many games that the Thunder big man reached double figures in the rebounding department. 

I love Holmgren in this prop again in Game 5, as he’s played over 34 minutes in back-to-back games and has hit the glass at a high rate all postseason, averaging 8.7 rebounds on 16.2 rebound chances per game.

In this series, Holmgren is averaging 9.3 boards on 16.3 rebound chances per game, and those numbers have jumped to 12.5 and 18.5 over the last two contests.

At 8.5 rebounds, Holmgren is a steal in Game 5.  

Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Another play from today’s Peter’s Points, I’m betting on the Pacers to cover on the road in Game 5: 

So far this postseason, the Pacers are a shocking 9-4 against the spread as underdogs, and they’ve won all nine of those games outright – including Game 1 of this series.

The Indiana Pacers are 9-4 ATS as underdogs this postseason, winning all nine games outright.

Pacers +6.5 in Game 4 tonight at @BetMGM

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) June 13, 2025

While Indiana failed to cover in Game 2 in OKC, every other game in this series has been decided by less than 10 points, and I don’t believe there is a 10-point difference between these teams.

In fact, one could argue that the Pacers blew Game 4 when they had a chance to take a stranglehold of the series. Indiana was up double digits in the second half, but it struggled mightily on offense down the stretch – something that had been an issue for OKC in Games 1 and 3. 

Overall, the Pacers are 25-19-1 against the spread as underdogs this season and 19-12 ATS when set as underdogs on the road. 

OKC’s offense has struggled at times in this series, and it is extremely reliant on SGA having a big scoring game. The Pacers, for the most part, have done a great job of getting the ball out of SGA’s hands and making other players on the Thunder beat them in this series.

After it made just three shots from beyond the arc in Game 4, OKC is very volatile on the offensive end at the moment. I’m not sold on laying 10 points – even at home – with the Thunder to take Game 5. 

I think Indiana keeps this thing close and covers as an underdog for the 10th time this postseason. 

Pick: Pacers +9.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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