Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 7

The Thunder are favored to win Game 7, but the best bet to place may be on the total.

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams is a solid prop target in Game 7. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The Indiana Pacers just won’t go away.

With a win on Thursday over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6, the Pacers have forced the most wonderful thing in professional sports: a Game 7. 

This is the first Game 7 in the NBA Finals since the Cleveland Cavaliers won the 2016 NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors, and the Cavs were one of four road teams in NBA history to win Game 7 of the Finals.

Home teams are 15-4 in Game 7s in the Finals, so the Pacers have history against them at Paycom Center on Sunday. Oddsmakers are giving the 68-win Thunder a lot of love in the odds for this game, setting them as 7.5-point favorites despite the blowout loss on Thursday.

OKC is 18-2 straight up after a loss in the 2024-25 season, and it has not lost back-to-back games all postseason. 

However, the Pacers have won 10 games outright as underdogs in the 2024-25 campaign, and they’ve been undervalued in the betting market all season long. Indy was +6000 to win the title before the 2024-25 season began. 

Can the Thunder complete a historic season with a Finals win? Or, will the Pacers become one of the most unexpected champions in league history.

For bettors, I have a few player props to look for and a play on the total to help you wager on Game 7 of the NBA Finals. 

Pacers vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Pacers +7.5 (-110)
• Thunder -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Pacers: +235
• Thunder: -290

Total

• 215.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pacers vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, June 22
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Tied 3-3

Pacers vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Pacers Injury Report

• Jarace Walker – out
• Isaiah Jackson – out
• Tyrese Haliburton – questionable

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic – out

Pacers vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• TJ McConnell OVER 17.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)

TJ McConnell went off in both Game 5 and Game 6, and he’s a great player to bet on to step up on Sunday night. 

McConnell combined for 26 points, rebounds and assists in Game 5 before putting up 27 in Game 6, filling the void left by Haliburton’s injury. The star guard is going to play in Game 7, but McConnell should still be heavily involved off the bench as one of the most important role players for Indiana.

McConnell has over 17.5 points, rebounds and assists in four of his six games in this series, and his role has expanded over the last few games. Since he’s averaging 3.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, it gives him a really solid floor when it comes to clearing this prop in Game 7. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jalen Williams OVER 22.5 Points (-120)

If the Thunder are able to win this series, Williams has a real case to win Finals MVP.

He’s averaging 24.2 points per game in the Finals, and he cleared 22.5 points in Games 3, 4 and 5 to help OKC take a 3-2 series lead. Even though he finished with just 16 points in Game 6, the Thunder also pulled all of their starters early.

OKC has relied heavily on iso ball with Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this series, and I don’t see that changing in Game 7. If you believe the Thunder will win, this is a must bet, as Williams has 18 or more shot attempts in four of the six games and has scored over 22.5 points in two of OKC’s three wins. 

Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is the play in Game 7: 

When it comes to recent NBA Finals history, the UNDER is the way to go when betting on a Game 7, and I love that the total has actually gone up a point since opening at 214.5. 

Here’s a look at the final scores in the five most recent Game 7s, where no team even reached 100 points: 

• 2016: Cavs 93, Warriors 89
• 2013: Heat 95, Spurs 88
• 2010: Lakers 83, Celtics 79
• 2005: Spurs 81, Pistons 74
• 1994: Rockets 90, Knicks 84

While we’re certainly in a different era of basketball with the pace of play, 3-point shot and higher scoring games, it’s worth noting how great these defenses have been in this series.

The Thunder have an offensive rating of 110.5 in the six games in this matchup while the Pacers sit at 109.5. When you compare those to regular season numbers, they’d both be in the bottom eight in the league. 

For further perspective, the Utah Jazz had an offensive rating of 110.2 in the regular season while the New Orleans Pelicans were at 109.7. Those were the two worst teams in the Western Conference. 

As it is, two games in this series have already fallen short of this total, and I expect things to slow down in Game 7 with so much at stake. 

Pick: UNDER 215.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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