Padres vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 7

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the San Diego Padres-New York Yankees matchup on Wednesday.

The Yankees are favored at home on Wednesday. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Two of the better teams in baseball face off in a rubber match on Wednesday night as the New York Yankees host the San Diego Padres. 

San Diego came back from a 3-0 deficit in Game 1, beating the Yankees 4-3, but it was New York that had a huge game in Game 2, scoring 10 runs in the bottom of the seventh inning to win 12-3.

On Wednesday, Yankees ace Max Fried gets the ball against San Diego’s Dylan Cease, and oddsmakers have set the Yankees as pretty sizable favorites at home. It makes sense, as New York has yet to lose a game that Fried has started in 2025.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction on Wednesday, May 7. 

Padres vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Padres +1.5 (-142)
• Yankees -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline

• Padres: +150
• Yankees: -180

Total

• 8 (Over -102/Under -118)

Padres vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: Dylan Cease (1-2, 5.61 ERA)
• New York: Max Fried (6-0, 1.01 ERA)

Padres vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, May 7
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, Prime Video
• Padres record: 23-12
• Yankees record: 20-16

Padres vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Max Fried UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-145)

Fried has been lights out for the Yankees this season, posting a 0.94 WHIP and 1.01 ERA.

He’s allowed five or fewer hits in each of his last five starts, and I think he’s undervalued in this market against a Padres offense that has been struggling as of late.

Over their last 15 games, the Padres are 27th in OPS, 27th in hits, and 25th in runs. That sets up well for the Yankees' lefty, who allowed just one hit in seven innings of work in his last outing. 

Padres vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Yankees are the bet to make in this series finale: 

The Yankees put together a huge offensive showing on Tuesday night to even their series with the Padres, and they have ace Max Fried on the mound for Wednesday's series finale.

Fried has been terrific in pinstripes, posting a 1.01 ERA in seven starts, leading the Yankees to a 7-0 record when he’s on the mound. I’m buying him to keep that going on Wednesday against a San Diego team that ranks just 27th in MLB in OPS over the last 15 days.

The Padres are turning to Dylan Cease on the mound in this game, and he’s struggled in 2025, posting a 5.61 ERA while allowing at least two runs in six of his seven outings. For comparison, Fried has given up just five earned runs all season and only has two starts where he’s given up more than one earned run. 

New York’s offense is also the best in baseball when it comes to OPS and second-best in runs scored. I’ll back the Yanks to get the series victory with their ace on the bump. 

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-180 at DraftKings)

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