Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Vlad Guerrero Jr. Stays Hot at the Dish)

Jennifer Piacenti | Aug 6, 2024

Jul 31, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) hits a single against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports / Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

We crushed our player props yesterday, cashing three out of four, all of which were plus money.  

Let’s target two players playing in domes tonight and avoid weather snafus. 

I’m eyeing one pitcher and one hitter for tonight’s action. All three bets listed below present good value. 

Now, let’s have some fun. 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday, August 6th

• Framber Valdez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts -- FanDuel Sportsbook
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases -- FanDuel Sportsbook
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Score a Run -- DraftKings Sportsbook

Framber Valdez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)

Yes, Valdez has exceeded this prop in each of his last four starts, racking up 10 strikeouts in three of them, but I’m still grabbing the under tonight. 

Valdez is a ground ball pitcher. No pitcher has a higher ground ball rate than Valdez (59.3%), and he’s allowing a mere .77 home runs per nine innings.  The Rangers have not been striking out at a high clip as of late, with just a 20.2% K-rate since the All-Star Break, and they have the seventh-highest ground-out rate in the league (75%).

The biggest risk in taking the under here is that Framber will go too deep into the game to keep this number low. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Score a Run (+125)

No player has more extra-base hits than Guerrero since the All-Star Break (17). He’s hitting .452 and slugging 1.051 with eight homers in that period.  That’s bonkers.  

We will play the odds that he will keep hitting tonight at home vs. Grayson Rodriguez. 

We’re taking the total bases prop for obvious reasons and the run prop we like in plus-money.   Vlad has scored a run in 14 of 17 games since the break.   

It’s also worth noting that Guerrero is hitting .357 with a 1.043 OPS vs. Rodriguez across 14 career at-bats. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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