Patrick Mahomes Insane Underdog Record Makes Chiefs Must-Bet vs. Bills

Iain MacMillan | Nov 11, 2024

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts in the first half against the Buffalo Bills for the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Despite the Kansas City Chiefs sporting an undefeated 9-0 record, they head to Buffalo as underdogs to take on the Bills in a classic Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen showdown.

Let's take a quick look at the odds and then I'll explain why the Chiefs are a must-bet in this situation.

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread:

• Chiefs +1.5 (-105)
• Bills -1.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

• Chiefs +112
• Bills -132

At +112 odds, the Chiefs have an implied probability of 47.17% winning this game.

Patrick Mahomes Underdog Trend

If you're considering betting on the Bills, keep in mind Patrick Mahomes has been dominant as an underdog in his career. He's 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread when oddsmakers have him set as the betting underdog.

Patrick Mahomes moves to 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog -- best mark in the Super Bowl era.

For some perspective, the rest of the NFL wins about 32% of games SU as an underdog since 2000. pic.twitter.com/yeUeV4mjyp

— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) October 20, 2024

If you want to break down this game by citing stats, metrics, and analytics and point to the fact the Bills have, by most metrics outside of win-loss record, the better team, you wouldn't be wrong. With that being said, many bettors (including myself) have fallen for that trap time and time against when betting on games involving the Chiefs.

The power that was once held by Tom Brady and the Patriots is now held by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Throw all number out the window when they take the field. At the end of the day, they'll find a way to win games.

That doesn't mean you should bet on the Chiefs every week. In fact, Mahomes is only 22-30-3 against the spread when favored by a touchdown or more.

Mahomes is 22-30-3 ATS as a favorite of 7 pts or more in his career -- least profitable of 70 QBs ATS ($100/bet) over the last decade ⤵️ https://t.co/MCQ2q8JTJa pic.twitter.com/SEe8Bo0yuI

— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) November 10, 2024

NFL teams and quarterbacks don't care about covering spreads, they care about winning games, and no one is better at doing exactly that then Mahomes.

When it comes to this year's version of the Chiefs, you may be confused why they look unimpressive when you watch them, yet they've yet to lose all year. I figured this out last week and it comes down to third down. The Chiefs offense is average at best on first and second down, but when it gets to third down, their offense becomes unstoppable.

I have figured out the Kansas City Chiefs pic.twitter.com/qrK9LBEWjR

— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) November 7, 2024

So, how do the Bills fare on third down? Not good. They rank 25th in opponent EPA and 19th in opponent success rate on third down.

I fully expect the Chiefs to once again win as underdogs on Sunday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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