Patrick Mahomes Jumps to Favorite in NFL MVP Odds, Josh Allen Falling After Another Loss

Breaking down the latest odds to win the NFL MVP in the 2025 season, with Patrick Mahomes set as the favorite.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win MVP this season. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

It took six weeks, but there is a new favorite to win the NFL MVP award in the 2025 season.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has jumped Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen in the latest odds after leading the Chiefs to a win over the Detroit Lions in Week 6. Kansas City is just 3-3 in the 2025 season, but oddsmakers moved Mahomes to +185 to win MVP, well ahead of Allen (+300) and Baker Mayfield (+350).

Those three players are the only ones with shorter than 16/1 odds to win MVP, a sign that Vegas expects this to be a three-man race going forward. Still, I shared some dark horse picks -- like New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (now +1800) -- as options to win the MVP on Monday.

Allen and the Bills have lost two games in a row, and he's gone from the odds-on favorite after Week 4 all the way down to +300. Buffalo is now in second in the AFC East, and that's opened the door for Mahomes to win the MVP even though the Chiefs got off to an 0-2 start in the 2025 season.

Let's dive into the latest odds and the cases for Mahomes and Allen through six weeks.

2025 NFL MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Patrick Mahomes: +185
• Josh Allen: +300
• Baker Mayfield: +350
• Matthew Stafford: +1600
• Jared Goff: +1600
• Drake Maye: +1800
• Justin Herbert: +1800
• Jordan Love: +1800
• Jayden Daniels: +2800
• Lamar Jackson: +3000
• Dak Prescott: +4000
• Daniel Jones: +4500
• Sam Darnold: +5000
• Jalen Hurts: +5500
• Aaron Rodgers: +7500
• Trevor Lawrence: +8000
• Caleb Williams: +10000
• Bo Nix: +10000

There has been a lot of movement in this market since Monday, as Maye has jumped from +2500 to +1800, Mahomes has gone from +225 to +185 and Allen fell from +185 to +300. Jayden Daniels' MVP odds also took a hit after losing to Chicago on Monday night, as the Commanders quarterback went from +2200 to +2800 to win this award.

Patrick Mahomes Now Favored to Win NFL MVP

There is a real case to be made for Mahomes, as he's carried a banged up Chiefs team to a 3-3 start without his top receiver (Rashee Rice) for six games. Kansas City has also been without Xavier Worthy for multiple games in the 2025 season.

Over the last three weeks, Mahomes has really turned things on with Worthy back in the lineup, and it appears oddsmakers think he could hit another level with Rice returning in Week 7. The Chiefs quarterback has thrown eight of his 11 touchdowns over the last three weeks, and he's now up to 1,514 passing yards, 11 scores and just two picks in 2025.

Mahomes not only has put up strong passing numbers, but he also leads Kansas City in rushing yards this season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He's found the end zone four times (one more. than Allen) and outranks the Bills quarterback in yards per carry.

Mahomes has a QBR or 81.4, which is higher than the 74.8 QBR that Allen had in 2024 (which led the NFL) when he won MVP.

Kansas City is going to have to make a push for the No. 1 seed in the AFC to keep Mahomes as the favorite, but it has won three of its last four games after an 0-2 start.

Josh Allen's MVP Odds Tank After Second Straight Loss

The reigning league MVP, Allen may have been overvalued in the market from the jump this season.

Buffalo has not played great from start to finish in any game in 2025, and Allen has put up worse numbers than he did last season throwing the football. He has 11 scores, but the star quarterback has already been picked four times (he threw just six last season) and ranks behind Mahomes in QBR.

Allen struggled to find receivers in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons, and one has to wonder if the lack of a No. 1 wideout is finally catching up to this Buffalo offense.

It was shocking to see Allen as an odds-on favorite earlier this season, and the market appears to be correcting itself with Buffalo no longer a lock to win the AFC East this season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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