Patriots vs. Dolphins Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 2 (Does Miami Bounce Back?)

The Dolphins are 5-0 in their last five home games against New England.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is looking to lead his team to a win as a home favorite. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Both the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins had rough showings in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, but they’ll look to bounce back in a head-to-head matchup in Week 2.

Miami scored just eight points in a 33-8 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa turned the ball over three times in the loss. Now, Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel are both on the hot seat with Miami getting off to a bad start to the season.

As for New England, Drake Maye and the Patriots offense struggled in Week 1, losing to the Las Vegas Raiders 20-13. Can they bounce back against a Miami team that allowed 33 points in Week 1?

All season long, the SI Betting team is going to share score predictions using the latest odds and analysis to attempt to get a score right – and give bettors our thoughts on both the spread and total.

Here’s how I view this AFC East matchup, with Miami set as a slight favorite at home. 

Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Patriots +1.5 (-120)
• Dolphins -1.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Patriots: -102
• Dolphins: -118

Total

• 43.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

The Dolphins opened as favorites in this game and things remain that way, but the total has ticked down from 44.5 to 43.5 in this matchup.

Miami may also be losing some ground in the odds, as it is even money to cover the spread against the Pats this week. Both of these teams desperately need a win after losing to fringe AFC playoff contenders in Week 1. 

Patriots vs. Dolphins Final Score Prediction

This week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared why he’s taking the Dolphins in Week 2 – even though they put up a terrible Week 1 – in his Road to 272 column: 

I'm buying low on the Miami Dolphins. I know the offseason rumors about a disjointed locker room, and I know that their Week 1 performance was disastrous, but I'm doing my best not to let those sway my opinion of them too far in one direction. The fact of the matter is, their offense is still loaded with talent, and they led all teams in Week 1 in rush EPA. Meanwhile, I was low on the Patriots coming into this season, and Week 1 confirmed my worries about this team. Mike Vrabel isn't going to be an automatic fix for this squad.

The Dolphins might be a penny stock right now, but they're a penny stock I'm still looking to invest in. I think they bounce back in this spot.

I understand MacMillan’s take that the Dolphins’ stock hasn’t been lower, and the fact that Miami has dominated New England in recent years is hard to look past.

Miami is 8-2 against the Patriots since the start of the 2020 season, including a 5-0 record at home during that stretch.

Maye and the Patriots did not look good either in Week 1, and now they have to go on the road against a Dolphins team that is a more talented squad on paper – at least on the offensive end. 

I’ll roll with Miami to pick up a win in Week 2, but I expect this to be a close game, as the spread suggests.

Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 21, Patriots 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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