Penn State vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Penn State is heavily favored to win on the road in Week 6.

The Penn State Nittany Lions and quarterback Drew Allar are road favorites in Week 6. / James Lang-Imagn Images

The No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the 2025 season in Week 5, but they’re looking to bounce back as road favorites in Week 6 against the UCLA Bruins.

Drew Allar and Penn State dropped an overtime game with another top-10 team in Oregon last week, but oddsmakers  haven’t wavered on the Nittany Lions’ status as a College Football Playoff contender.

Meanwhile, UCLA has yet to win a game in the 2025 season and has scored 14 or fewer points three times, including in its most recent loss to Northwestern.

Even with Nico Iamaleava in the fold, UCLA is looking like one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, and it could end up getting blown out at home against a talented Penn State squad.

Here’s a breakdown of this game, including the odds, players to watch and my prediction. 

Penn State vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Penn State -25.5 (-110)
• UCLA +25.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Penn State: -2800
• UCLA: +1300

Total

• 50.5 (Over -105/Under- 115)

Penn State vs. UCLA How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Rose Bowl
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Penn State record: 3-1
• UCLA record: 4-0

Penn State vs. UCLA Key Player to Watch

Nico Iamaleava, Quarterback, UCLA

After transferring from Tennessee in the offseason, Iamaleava has run into a brutal start to his UCLA career – and it’s likely hurt his long-term NFL Draft stock. 

This season, Iamaleava has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for just 788 yards, four scores and three interceptions in four games. The Bruins have scored 10, 23, 10 and 14 points with him leading the offense, and things are going to get even tougher against the No. 7 team in the country.

Iamaleava showed some real promise at Tennessee in 2024, but he struggled in the team’s College Football Playoff loss. Now, on an inferior UCLA team, he doesn’t look like a player that can carry a team to wins. 

This is a tough matchup against a Penn State defense that is 32nd in the country in EPA/Play on defense. 

Penn State vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Nittany Lions, and I expect them to cover this number against a struggling UCLA team.

UCLA has losses by 25 points (to New Mexico) and 33 points (to Utah) to open the 2025 season, and it ranks 128th in the country in Net EPA/Play (-0.20). Even with Iamaleava under center, the Bruins have a flawed roster, ranking 128th in defensive EPA/Play and 136th in defensive success rate.

The Bruins don’t have the ability to slow down Drew Allar and this Penn State attack, and on offense they’ve scored 14 or fewer points in three of their four games. That’s a recipe for disaster against a College Football Playoff contender. 

While Penn State lost in overtime to Oregon in Week 5, it had wins by 35, 34 and 46 against inferior opponents to open the season. The Nittany Lions rank 18th in the country in Net EPA/Play, and they should dominate this UCLA defense that may be the worst in the Big Ten. 

I’ll lay the 25.5 points with Penn State as it looks to bounce back after its first loss of the 2025 campaign. 

Pick: Penn State -25.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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