Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Bam Adebayo, Heat-76ers, Ausar Thompson)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, April 7, including a pick for Bam Adebayo.

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo is a solid prop target on Monday. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Monday’s NBA action features just two games, as the Florida-Houston matchup in the NCAA Tournament National Championship game takes center stage in the basketball world.

Still, there are some major play-in implications for the Sacramento Kings (against the Detroit Pistons) and the Miami Heat (against the Philadelphia 76ers) with just a few games left in the regular season. 

Miami is aiming to sneak into the No. 8 spot in the East while the Kings are coming off a massive upset win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, putting them in a much better position to hold their spot in the West’s play-in tournament. 

Here’s a breakdown of my best bets for Monday’s two-game slate. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 209-196-4 (+1.14 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1219-1141-26 (+39.23 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Ausar Thompson OVER 19.5 Points and Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Miami Heat Same-Game Parlay (-145) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit

Ausar Thompson OVER 19.5 Points and Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unit

Detroit Pistons wing Ausar Thompson has been on fire as of late, averaging 15.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game over his last six contests. The former lottery pick is an intriguing prop target against the Sacramento Kings, who are just 21st in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 contests.

In this six-game stretch, Thompson has played a big role for Detroit, averaging 31.0 minutes per game. With Jalen Duren – Detroit’s best rebounder – questionable on Monday, Thompson could see an uptick on the glass.

Overall, Thompson is averaging 10.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, but as a starter, he’s averaging 11.0 points and 5.4 boards a night. Plus, in games that he’s played 30 or more minutes, Thompson is averaging 15.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.

I’m betting on his usage staying high against a Kings team that is playing the second night of a back-to-back and has been pedestrian at best on the defensive end. 

Miami Heat Same-Game Parlay (-145) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit

• Bam Adebayo 18+ Points
• Miami Heat -7.5

With Tyler Herro and Andrew Wiggins questionable, I’m not totally sold on laying the points with Miami in this game, but I do think it could open some chances for Bam Adebayo if they end up sitting. So, I combined a pair of alternate lines for this parlay.

Bam Adebayo 18+ Points

Bam Adebayo has scored 21 or more points in four straight games, although he was held to just 16 points in 28 minutes in a blowout win over the Sixers last month.

Still, Bam is averaging 18.0 points per game, and he’s been much better since the All-Star break, averaging 20.6 points per game while shooting 50.8 percent from the field and 42.3 percent from beyond the arc. 

Philly is the No. 28 defense in the NBA over its last 10 games, so I wouldn't be shocked to see Bam go off, especially if Herro and Wiggins sit on Monday. 

Miami Heat -7.5

For the sake of this parlay, I’m moving this spread down from 14.5 to 7.5, but overall I like Miami to cover the spread regardless. 

The Heat are 12-12 against the spread when favored at home this season – an average mark – but they blew out Philly by 23 points in Philly late last month.

The Sixers are in full-on tanking mode, ranking 28th in the NBA in net rating over their last 10 games (-14.7). Miami is still in play for the No. 8 seed, although it is two games out, entering Monday’s action. 

On top of that, the Sixers are the worst team in the NBA against the spread as road underdogs, going 8-19-1 this season. While the Heat have not played well this season, they are 6-4 in their last 10 games and beat up on some bad teams – and some good ones in Boston and Golden State – during a six-game winning streak not that long ago.

There’s zero reason to trust the Sixers on the road with all of the players that they have out of the lineup.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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