Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Bradley Beal, Nuggets-Cavs and More)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Dec. 5.

Phoenix Suns guard Bradley Beal is a terrific prop target on Thursday night. / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Thursday’s NBA slate features eight games without a single team playing the second night of a back-to-back, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t injuries we have to navigate in the betting market.

Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Chet Holmgren, LaMelo Ball, Zion Williamson and Victor Wembanyama all won’t suit up on Dec. 5.

While that certainly is disappointing for watching some of these games, it does open up some potential bets to make – especially in the prop market.

I have a pair of props that I’m considering for Thursday’s slate, as well as one spread and a first-half trend that has been the most profitable bet early in games this season.

Here’s a full breakdown of each bet for Thursday night’s NBA action. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 71-69-2 (-0.33 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1081-1014-24 (+37.75 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Cleveland Cavaliers First Half -2 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets 
• Bradley Beal OVER 18.5 Points (-125) 
• Brandin Podziemski OVER 4.5 Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Toronto Raptors +9 (-105) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – 0.5 unit

Cleveland Cavaliers First Half -2 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets

Recently, I’ve discovered a key trend with the Denver Nuggets in the first half.

Formerly an elite first quarter team (in previous seasons), Denver has been a nightmare in the first half of games this season – partially due to its awful on/off splits when Nikola Jokic is getting a rest.

Denver -16.6 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the bench and +12.4 points per 100 possessions when he plays. So, when the Joker takes a breather in the second quarter, Denver is struggling mightily. 

That has led to an awful against the spread record in the first half, as the Nuggets are just 4-15 ATS in the first half after failing to cover again as a favorite against Golden State on Tuesday night. 

Now, they take on a Cavs team that is 12-9-1 against the spread in the first half and No. 3 in the NBA overall in net rating. On top of that, the Cavs have the best net rating in the NBA in the first half at home (+25.1) while the Nuggets are just 19th in the NBA in first half net rating on the road (-4.3). 

I’ll keep fading Denver until this trend starts to level out. 

Bradley Beal OVER 18.5 Points (-125) 

The Phoenix Suns are down Kevin Durant in Thursday’s matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans, which should mean an expanded offensive role for Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. 

I think that it’s Beal who could be in line for a massive game for the Suns against a New Orleans defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating and 23rd in opponent points per game.

Beal has scored 28 and 24 points in his two games without Durant, attempting 16.5 shots per game in those contests. 

Overall this season, the Suns star guard is averaging 17.5 points per game while shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 39.4 percent from 3. He should be able to build on that with increased volume tonight. 

Brandin Podziemski OVER 4.5 Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit

No Steph Curry and no Draymond Green for the Golden State Warriors means Brandin Podziemski will run the show against the Houston Rockets tonight. 

So far this season, Podziemski has played four games without Curry in action and is averaging 14.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game, playing 30 or more minutes in each matchup.

The Warriors guard also has picked up at least five assists in each game, including a six-assist game against these Rockets. 

On the season, Podziemski is averaging just 6.8 potential assists per game, but he should have an expanded playmaking role as the Warriors’ primary ball-handler with both Curry and Green sidelined. 

Toronto Raptors +9 (-105) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – 0.5 unit

This bet is not for the faint of heart, but I love the Toronto Raptors at home on Thursday against the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

The Raptors have been underdogs in all 10 of their home games this season, but they've won six of them outright and are 8-2 against the spread. 

There’s no doubt that the team's ceiling is higher with Scottie Barnes in the lineup, as the Raptors have gone 5-6 straight up with the All-Star forward and 2-9 without him.

So, are they undervalued in this matchup?

OKC is certainly the superior team, ranking No. 1 in the NBA in net rating this season, but it has only gone 5-4 against the spread as a road favorite.

The Thunder still have a net rating over nearly seven points better than the Raptors in each team’s last 10 games, so this is still a tough scenario for Toronto to cover. Despite that, in the first meeting after the Barrett-Quickley deal last season, the Raptors took OKC to two overtimes. 

I think this game will be closer than oddsmakers think on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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