Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Lakers-Mavs, Nikola Jokic, Rockets-Clippers)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Wednesday, April 9, including a pick for Nikola Jokic.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a great prop target on Wednesday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Arguably, the most-anticipated return to a city in NBA history will take place on Wednesday night, as Luka Doncic will play his first game back in Dallas with the Los Angeles Lakers. 

Doncic was ejected from Tuesday night’s loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but bettors and fans can be sure that he’ll be motivated to show his former team that it messed up by moving him at this season’s trade deadline.

I have bet on that matchup, as well as a pair of player props to consider. One of those props is for Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic, who is in a whole new world after the franchise fired head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth on Tuesday afternoon. 

Denver – the No. 5 seed in the West – has a tough finish to the regular season against Sacramento, Memphis, and Houston, and now lacks a little bit of direction with Malone out. 

With so much at stake still in the Western Conference playoff picture, here’s how to bet on the action on April 9.  

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 210-201-4 (-1.21 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1220-1146-26 (+36.88 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Los Angeles Lakers-Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline Parlay (+114) – 0.5 unit
• Nikola Jokic OVER 31.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Josh Giddey OVER 16.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit

Los Angeles Lakers-Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline Parlay (+114) – 0.5 unit

Los Angeles Lakers

After hanging tough with OKC on Tuesday before Doncic was ejected, the Lakers find themselves favored on the road on Wednesday night. 

Even with Anthony Davis back, the Mavs have one of the 10-worst net ratings in the NBA over their last 10 games, and they’re just 8-8 against the spread as home underdogs.

It would be shocking to see the Lakers lose this game, especially with how much it means for them in the Western Conference standings.

Los Angeles likely needs to win two of its final three games to clinch the No. 3 seed, and the Lakers made some concessions to be ready for this game, sitting Rui Hachimura on the front end of a back-to-back on Tuesday.

While Dallas’ size is a little bit of a matchup issue for Los Angeles, Davis has been on a minutes limit since returning from his adductor strain. I trust the Lakers to earn a win in Doncic’s return to Dallas. 

Los Angeles Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers played a little closer matchup than they would have liked with the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, but Kawhi Leonard also sat out that game for injury management. 

Now, Kawhi is likely to return on Wednesday against a Houston Rockets team that has clinched the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

Houston has listed Alperen Sengun as questionable, Fred VanVleet as doubtful, and Jabari Smith Jr. as questionable for this matchup. This season, the Rockets are just 11-9 in the 20 games that VanVleet has missed.

Plus, the Clippers have the best net rating in the NBA over their last 10 games, and despite not covering the spread on Tuesday, they’re an insane 19-8 ATS as home favorites.

If Sengun and VanVleet sit, Los Angeles is an easy bet to make with Kawhi likely back in action on Wednesday. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 31.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Denver Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic is averaging 30.0 points per game this season, and he’s been called upon to score even more with Jamal Murray (hamstring) out of the lineup.

Murray is listed as doubtful for Wednesday’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings, a team that Jokic dropped 35 points on earlier this season.

The three-time league MVP has scored 32 or more points in seven of his last 10 games, and he is averaging 30.5 points per game since the All-Star break (18 games). I expect Jokic, who has taken 20 or more shots in eight of his last 11 matchups, to have a huge game scoring against a Kings defense that is just 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating. 

Josh Giddey OVER 16.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit

Chicago Bulls guard Josh Giddey sat out Tuesday’s loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I’d be shocked to see him sit against the Miami Heat with a play-in tournament position on the line on Wednesday. 

Giddey has put up some impressive rebounding and passing numbers all season long, averaging 8.0 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game, but he’s been even better as of late.

Giddey is averaging 10.4 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game since the All-Star break, clearing 17.5 rebounds and assists in six of his last eight games.

After being listed at 17.5 rebounds and assists yesterday, before he was ruled out, Giddey is a steal at 16.5 on Wednesday. He recorded 10 rebounds and 12 assists against the Heat back on March 8.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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