Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Breanna Stewart, Mercury-Wings, Sonia Citron)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Thursday, July 3.

New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart is a great prop target on Thursday. / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship is behind us, with the Indiana Fever beating the Minnesota Lynx on Tuesday night, even with Caitlin Clark (groin) out of the lineup.

Now, the league resumes after an off day on Wednesday with five matchups on Thursday, July 3, including a meeting between the Fever and the Las Vegas Aces. 

Here’s a look at every game in action on Thursday night:

• Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever
• Los Angeles Sparks vs. New York Liberty
• Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream
• Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings
• Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx

It’s been a less-than-ideal start when it comes to my WNBA Best Bets this season, but there’s nothing like a five-game slate to help turn things around. 

Here are the plays that I’m eyeing for Thursday, July 3. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 24-35 (-5.79 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 108-109 (-1.33 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Breanna Stewart OVER 20.5 Points (-120)
• Skylar Diggins OVER 5.5 Assists (-115)
• Phoenix Mercury -7.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Wings
• Sonia Citron OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+110)

Breanna Stewart OVER 20.5 Points (-120)

With Jonquel Jones (ankle) out of the lineup for the Liberty, Breanna Stewart is going to be called upon to carry more of the scoring load for the foreseeable future.

Luckily for the Liberty, Stewart is more than equipped to do so. She’s averaging 20.8 points per game in the 2025 season, and the former league MVP has scored 21 or more points in nine games this season, including five of her last seven contests.

Stewie is shooting 50.9 percent from the field, and she’s seen her usage increase a bit over the last few games, taking 16.0 shots per game over her last nine games after averaging just 10.6 shots per game in her first seven games.

This is a great matchup, as the Sparks rank 11th in the WNBA in points per game allowed and defensive rating. Stewart should be able to attack this weak defense, especially if Cameron Brink (ACL recovery) remains sidelined. 

Skylar Diggins OVER 5.5 Assists (-115)

Seattle Storm guard Skylar Diggins is off to a strong start in the 2025 season, averaging 18.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 41.8 percent from beyond the arc.

This matchup with the Atlanta Dream is expected to be a close one – both teams are -110 on the moneyline – so I’m eyeing a player prop for Diggins, who should have the ball in her hands a ton in this matchup.

The six-time All-Star is averaging 6.1 assists per game, but she’s come on as of late as a passer, picking up six or more dimes in seven of her last nine games. Atlanta is fourth in the W in opponent assists per game, but I think this number should be set as 6.5 and not 5.5 on Thursday.

Diggins is worth a shot to hit her season average. 

Phoenix Mercury -7.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Wings

The Phoenix Mercury already have a double-digit win over the Dallas Wings in the 2025 season, and I am backing them to pick up another on Thursday night.

While it seems like Paige Bueckers (full participant in Tuesday’s practice) will be good to go on Thursday, the Wings are still extremely banged up with Maddy Siegrist and Ty Harris out and DiJonai Carrington, Arike Ogunbowale, and Myisha Hines-Allen all nursing injuries. Carrington is doubtful and Ogunbowale has been ruled out on Thursday.

As it is, the Wings are one of the worst teams in the WNBA this season, ranking 10th in net rating while posting a 5-13 record (including an 8-10 mark against the spread).

Phoenix, on the other hand, has a +5.4 net rating in the 2025 season and an impressive 5-2 record on the road. The Mercury are also finally at full strength with Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper all healthy.

I think Phoenix ends up rolling in this matchup – especially if Dallas rules out a few more key players. 

Sonia Citron OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+110)

This player prop may be the steal of the day, as Mystics rookie Sonia Citron has been great shooting the 3-ball in the 2025 season.

Citron is shooting 38.2 percent from 3 on 4.5 attempts per game, and she’s stepped up her shooting as of late. The former Notre Dame star has made multiple shots from beyond the arc in four of her last five games, averaging 2.6 made 3s on 6.0 attempts per game (43.3 percent) during that stretch.

She now has 10 games (out of 17) with two or more made 3-pointers. At +110, this prop is a pretty solid value for a player who has a massive role in Washington’s rotation and offense.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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