Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Valkyries vs. Mercury, Sabrina Ionescu)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup action on Thursday, June 5.

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu is a solid prop target on Thursday. / John Jones-Imagn Images

Two more WNBA Commissioner’s Cup games are set for Thursday, June 5, as the defending WNBA champion New York Liberty takes on the Washington Mystics to open the action.

New York put together a dominant showing in its first Commissioner’s Cup game this season, winning by 48 points. It is heavily favored on Thursday against a Washington team that has dropped back-to-back games.

The second game of the night features the Phoenix Mercury, who are 1-1 in Commissioner’s Cup play, and the Golden State Valkyries, who dropped their first Commissioner’s Cup game in franchise history.

Injuries have decimated the Mercury as of late, as Kahleah Copper and Natasha Mack have not played this season, while Alyssa Thomas (calf) has also been sidelined as of late. 

Still, oddsmakers have set the Mercury as favorites at home on Thursday.

I have a pair of best bets for the WNBA action tonight, including a player prop for Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 10-13 (-2.68 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 94-87 (+1.78 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here. You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Golden State Valkyries-Phoenix Mercury UNDER 157 (-112) – 0.5 unit
• Sabrina Ionescu OVER 4.5 Assists (+104) – 0.5 unit

Golden State Valkyries-Phoenix Mercury UNDER 157 (-112) – 0.5 unit

With Copper out and Thomas dealing with a calf injury, the Mercury are a tough team to trust on the offensive end outside of star forward Satou Sabally.

Phoenix ranks just 10th in the WNBA in offensive rating this season, and it has scored 71 or fewer points in four of its last six games. The Mercury – without Thomas – were held to just 65 points in Tuesday’s loss to the Lynx.

Unlike the Minnesota game, where the Lynx could carry the other half of the total, the Valkyries will not do that. Golden State is 12th in the WNBA in offensive rating and dead last in effective field goal percentage.

The Valkyries have failed to clear 80 points in five of their six games this season, hitting the UNDER five times. Phoenix is also an elite UNDER team, going 5-2-1 in the 2025 season.

I expect this game to be a bit of a rock fight – especially if Thomas is unable to go.

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 4.5 Assists (+104) – 0.5 unit

Sabrina Ionescu has taken a bit of a step back as a playmaker for the Liberty this season with the addition of Natasha Cloud, but she’s still averaging 4.7 assists per game.

Ionescu has at least five dimes in four of her seven games, and she’s yet to fall short of four assists in any game. So, there’s a pretty solid floor for the Liberty star when it comes to this prop.

With the OVER set at plus money, I think Ionescu is worth a shot against a Washington team that is seventh in the WNBA in defensive rating. Sabrina had five dimes in the 22-point win over the Mystics earlier this season.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.