Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, June 16

Sean Treppedi | Jun 16, 2025

Mick Abel has had a sound rookie campaign, but there are some underlying metrics that suggest regression. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Phillies look to have surged into form as of late, highlighted by an 11-4 rout of Toronto on Sunday to complete a sweep at home. 

Philadelphia has pulled to within 2 ½ games of the Mets for the division lead as it heads to Miami to play the Marlins on Monday. Miami remains 15 ½ games in the cellar of the NL East, but rides into this game after having swept Washington.

Mick Abel (1-0, 2.35 ERA), the Phillies’ rookie right-hander who’s off to a steadfast debut campaign, will face veteran Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 7.14 ERA), who snapped an eight-game winless streak last week.

The Phillies took the first series in April as all three games hit nine runs or higher. 

As both teams clash amid momentum, let’s see how books are pricing the series opener.

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Phillies -1.5 (+150)
• Marlins +1.5 (-182)

Moneyline

• Phillies (-108)
• Marlins (-108)

Total

• Over 8 (-105)
• Under 8 (-115)

Phillies vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Phillies: Mick Abel (1-0, 2.35 ERA)
• Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 7.14 ERA)

Phillies vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Monday, June 16, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: loanDepot Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCSP, FDSN Florida
• Phillies Record: 42-29
• Marlins Record: 28-41

Phillies vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Mick Abel Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-113 at FanDuel)

SI’s Iain MacMillan handicapped the Under on Abel’s strikeout prop in his Monday MLB props column, which I am endorsing for this game. MacMillan highlighted how the Marlins have struggled overall lately, but their plate discipline has stood out, owning the third-lowest strikeout rate in MLB over the past 30 days at just 18.5%. Abel has failed to record more than four strikeouts in two of his three starts. 

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Sandy Alcantara has a pair of deep, quality starts under his belt this month, combining 12 innings for two earned runs and 10 strikeouts. He had some struggles in May, but his K-BB% jumped significantly as his command looks much better since starting his return from Tommy John surgery in April. 

Meanwhile, Abel may boast strong surface-level numbers, but underneath, he sports a 5.09 xERA and an unsustainable 100% strand rate, suggesting regression is on the rise. Miami has outperformed Philadelphia in wRC+ since Bryce Harper’s injury — and also holds the edge in bullpen performance over the past month, too. Defensively, the Marlins rank better than the Phillies in both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, so I’m taking them in a pick’em to win the series opener straight up.

Pick: Marlins (-108 at FanDuel)

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