Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, June 17

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Philadelphia Phillies-Miami Marlins matchup on Tuesday, June 17.

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo is a solid prop target on Tuesday. / John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to keep their five-game winning streak going on Tuesday night when they take on the Miami Marlins for the second game of their early-week series.

Philly has been up and down this season, and that includes starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo. After posting a 2.15 ERA over his first 11 starts, Luzardo was rocked in back-to-back outings and the Phillies worried that he was tipping his pitches. 

However, the lefty bounced back in his last outing, pitching six innings of one-run ball in a win over the Chicago Cubs. On Tuesday, he’ll square off against Marlins righty Cal Quantrill, who has a 5.61 ERA in the 2025 season.

Let’s break down the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for this NL East battle. 

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line 

• Phillies -1.5 (-108)
• Marlins +1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Phillies: -187
• Marlins: +152

Total

• 8.5 (Over -111/Under -110)

Phillies vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Philadelphia: Jesus Luzardo (6-2, 4.23 ERA)
• Miami: Cal Quantrill (3-7, 5.61 ERA)

Phillies vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 17
• Time: 6:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: loanDepot park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSFL, NBCS-PH
• Phillies record: 43-29
• Marlins record: 28-42

Phillies vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jesus Luzardo 6+ Strikeouts (-170)

This season, Luzardo ranks in the 76th percentile or better in whiff percentage, chase rate and strikeout percentage, and he’s averaging 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings of work.

I think this matchup for him against a Miami team that average over eight punchouts per game, especially since Luzardo has six or more Ks in nine of his 14 starts in 2025. 

The lefty has seven Ks across seven innings of work the last time he faced Miami (back in April). 

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Phillies are the bet to make in this matchup: 

After two terrible starts where it appeared that Philadelphia Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo was tipping his pitches, he got back on track in his last outing, tossing six innings of one-run ball in a win over the Chicago Cubs.

Jesús Luzardo, Changeups (both with a runner on 2B)

Old hand position is in Red outline. pic.twitter.com/wvZLl6K4AS

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 11, 2025

I’m betting on Luzardo to remain hot on Tuesday against the Miami Marlins, who are 14 games under .500 and rank just 19th in MLB in OPS this season.

Despite his two down outings, Luzardo still has a 4.23 ERA and 2.65 FIP this season, ranking in the 68th percentile in expected ERA.

I expect him to outduel Cal Quantrill, who enters this start with a 5.61 ERA for the Marlins, leading them to a 6-7 record in his 13 outings. Quantrill ranks in the 11th percentile in expected ERA at 5.20.

The Phillies have won five games in a row to get back in the mix for first in the NL East, and I expect that streak to continue on the road tonight. 

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-187 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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