Phillies vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, May 8

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Philadelphia Phillies-Tampa Bay Rays matchup on Thursday.

The Phillies are favored on Thursday. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies find themselves as road favorites on Thursday night against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have dropped back-to-back games to fall to four games below .500 on the season.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 8-2 in its last 10 games and has lefty Jesus Luzardo on the mound in this one. Luzardo has been great in 2025, leading the Phils to a 5-2 record in his starts while posting a 1.94 ERA.

Can he stay hot on the road on Thursday?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my game prediction for Thursday night’s matchup. 

Phillies vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line 

• Phillies -1.5 (+114)
• Rays +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline

• Phillies: -155
• Rays: +130

Total

• 9 (Over -102/Under -118)

Phillies vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

• Philadelphia: Jesus Luzardo (3-0, 1.94 ERA)
• Tampa Bay: Ryan Pepiot (2-4, 4.23 ERA)

Phillies vs. Rays How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 8
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, FDSSUN, NBCS-PH
• Phillies record: 21-15
• Rays record: 16-20

Phillies vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jesus Luzardo OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB props column why Jesus Luzardo is undervalued against Tampa Bay: 

This season, Luzardo has a 1.94 ERA, 1.94 FIP and a 1.17 WHIP, leading the Philadelphia Phillies to a 5-2 record in his seven starts.

He’s also done a solid job generating strikeouts, punching out 47 batters in 41.2 innings of work. Overall, Luzardo has five starts where he’s recorded six or more strikeouts.

This is a solid matchup for the Phillies lefty, as the Rays rank 21st in MLB in strikeouts per game (8.61), and are averaging 12.0 strikeouts per game over their last three matchups.

The advanced numbers – per Statcat – for Luzardo are great. He ranks in the 79th percentile in strikeout percentage, 86 percentile in whiff percentage and 82nd percentile in chase rate.

He’s also pitched into the sixth inning in six of his seven starts, giving him a pretty solid floor when it comes to clearing this number. 

Phillies vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

It’s hard to fade the Phillies right now, as they have the No. 2 OPS in baseball over the last week while Tampa Bay is dead last in that category.

I’ve raved about Luzardo in this story, and he deserves it after allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of his first seven starts in 2025. That’s going to keep Philadelphia in just about every game, even though its bullpen has been suspect in 2025, posting a 2.66 ERA.

As for the Rays, they’re hard to trust with Pepiot on the bump.

The righty has been extremely prone to the long ball, allowing eight in six starts, and the Phillies have hit 11 homers over the last seven days as a team. Plus, Pepiot’s FIP (5.15) is even higher than his ERA. He’s also allowed more hits than innings pitched this season, posting a 1.41 WHIP overall. 

I don’t trust the Rays to score enough to make up for their disadvantage on the bump on Thursday. 

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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