Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 26

Iain MacMillan | May 26, 2025

The Diamondbacks are home favorites against the Pirates on Monday night. / Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are desperate to snap their losing streak as they return home to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates on Memorial Day.

The Diamondbacks have lost five straight games, including getting swept by the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend. As a result, their record has fallen below .500 to 26-27.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for tonight's National League series-opener.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (-125)
• Diamondbacks -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline

• Pirates +160
• Diamondbacks -192

Total

• 9.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 26
• Game Time: 8:10 PM EST
• Venue: Chase Field
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet-PIT, Dbacks.TV, MLBN (out-of-market only)
• Pirates Record: 19-35
• Diamondbacks Record: 26-27

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Andrew Heaney, LHP (3-3, 2.91 ERA)
• Arizona: Ryne Nelson, RHP (1-1, 4.60 ERA)

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Best Prop Bet

• Andrew Heaney UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)

In today's edition of Painting Corners, I broke down why I'm betting the UNDER on Andrew Heaney's strikeout total:

No team strikes out less against lefties this season than the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have struck out on just 16.2% of plate appearances against them, which is 2.1% lower than any other team in the majors. Today, they'll face Andrew Heaney of the Pirates, who isn't exactly known for being a strikeout machine. He has struck out 4+ batters just once in his last five starts. Despite the total being set at just 3.5 for this game, I'll take the UNDER on this prop all day.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Despite their recent losing streak, I still have faith in the Diamondbacks being able to take care of business against the Pirates tonight. Over the past 14 days, they're second in the Majors in OPS at .823 while also batting .279. You wouldn't think that would be the case based on their recent record, but their lineup is still hitting the ball well.

The Pirates, meanwhile, are 24th in that stat in the same time frame at .659.

You may give the slight edge in the starting pitchers category to the Pirates, but if we take a closer look, that may not be the case. Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks has a 4.60 ERA, but a 3.56 FIP (Field Independent Pitching). The opposite is true for Heaney, who has a 2.91 ERA but a 4.04 FIP. Those numbers indicate, to me, that Nelson is due for positive regression, and Heaney's numbers could trend the opposite way.

I'll back the Diamondbacks on the run line tonight.

Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+105)

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!